American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Industrials • Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) Profile & Business Summary
American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier. The company provides scheduled air transportation services for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C., as well as through partner gateways in London, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a mainline fleet of 865 aircraft. The company was formerly known as AMR Corporation and changed its name to American Airlines Group Inc. in December 2013. American Airlines Group Inc. was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
Key Information
| Ticker | AAL |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NASDAQ |
| Official Site | https://www.aa.com |
Market Trend Overview for AAL
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-08-28 (ET)
As of 2026-08-28, AAL is showing signs of slowing down. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
AAL last closed at 13.64. The price is about 0.7 ATR below its recent average price (13.99), and the market is currently in a trend that may be losing strength. Price at 13.64 is near minor support around 13.43. Momentum may slow, while minor resistance sits near 14.16. View Support & Resistance from Options
Short-term weakness is unfolding within a broader uptrend, suggesting a pullback rather than a full trend reversal.
Trend score: 55 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a late-stage trend that may be losing strength. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
There is no clear key risk boundary right now.
On 2026-08-13, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.
[2026-08-17] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent price action continues to trend lower in a relatively orderly manner, with no clear signs of structural stabilization yet emerging.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.
The model does not deploy this setup because the signal stack remains conflicted. Predictability is 52%, agreement is 86%, and reversal risk is 17%.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 27 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-08-28. The current price is 13.64, 4.77% below the estimated average cost of 14.32. An estimated 8.6% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 90.9% is above it. The peak-density price is 13.78. The largest concentrated cost region is 13.46 to 14.04 and contains 62.2% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 13.46 to 14.04 cost region. The nearest region above the current price is 14.21 to 14.22.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for AAL
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is relatively low, indicating limited pressure from short positions. (Historical percentile: 37%)
Structure Analysis
AAL Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 1.0 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. Price is already trending lower (20D return -10.7%). The current configuration reflects active downside pressure rather than latent structural fragility.
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
In the latest reporting period, short interest continues to increase. Price action is compressing (range is tightening), which can make breaks more sensitive. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-07-31 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.