Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Technology • Industry: Semiconductors
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) Profile & Business Summary
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells various fiber-optic networking products worldwide. It offers optical modules, lasers, subassemblies, transmitters and transceivers, and turn-key equipment, as well as headend, node, and distribution equipment. The company sells its products to internet data center operators, cable television and telecom equipment manufacturers, and internet service providers through its direct and indirect sales channels. Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas.
Key Information
| Ticker | AAOI |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NASDAQ |
| Official Site | https://www.ao-inc.com |
Market Trend Overview for AAOI
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-10-01 (ET)
As of 2026-10-01, AAOI is moving sideways with low volatility. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
AAOI last closed at 107.32. The price is about 0.1 ATR below its recent average price (108.93), and the market is currently in a sideways market with low volatility. Price at 107.32 is moving between minor support near 102.10 and minor resistance near 116.90. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
Price is moving in a tight range. This often leads to a stronger move once the range breaks, increasing one-sided risk.
Trend score: 40 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways phase with tightening price movement. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
A key downside risk boundary is near 92.63. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.
On 2026-08-24, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.
[2026-10-01] Moderate participation supported a steady price advance.Bullish signal near support (0.63 ATR away). Buyers may step in here.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
Closing activity showed limited conviction and did not suggest strong overnight positioning.
The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.
The model does not deploy this setup because predictability is still too low, internal signals are not aligned strongly enough, and price is still close to a gamma transition zone. Predictability is 28%, agreement is 30%, and reversal risk is 22%.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 50 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-10-01. The current price is 107.32, 0.92% above the estimated average cost of 106.34. An estimated 71.2% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 27.4% is above it. The peak-density price is 102.20. The largest concentrated cost region is 100.10 to 108.10 and contains 50.3% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 100.10 to 108.10 cost region. The nearest region below the current price is 96.50 to 99.70. The nearest region above the current price is 110.10 to 110.50.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for AAOI
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is relatively low, indicating limited pressure from short positions. (Historical percentile: 17%)
Structure Analysis
AAOI Short positioning is starting to look crowded. Current days to cover is 2.0 trading days, meaning short positions would unwind somewhat slower than average. Short covering could add extra momentum to price moves. Early signs of positioning pressure are emerging (Fragility Score 42/100, DTC percentile 82%) as price consolidates near recent highs (20D return 4.1%) with short positioning continuing to expand and liquidity contracting meaningfully (volume -32%).
Risk Summary
Some early warning signs are emerging. Price strength remains intact, but underlying support may be starting to weaken.This indicator is intended as a risk filter, not a directional signal. A High or Extreme reading does not predict an immediate move, but suggests that if prices weaken, downside reactions may be more pronounced.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Days-to-Cover is elevated versus its own history, but absolute short interest remains moderate. In the latest reporting period, short interest continues to increase. Average trading volume is weakening, indicating contracting liquidity. Phase: Building. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. Rising short pressure is occurring while liquidity is deteriorating. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 2× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-09-15 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.