Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Technology • Industry: Semiconductors
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) Profile & Business Summary
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells various fiber-optic networking products worldwide. It offers optical modules, lasers, subassemblies, transmitters and transceivers, and turn-key equipment, as well as headend, node, and distribution equipment. The company sells its products to internet data center operators, cable television and telecom equipment manufacturers, and internet service providers through its direct and indirect sales channels. Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas.
Key Information
| Ticker | AAOI |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NASDAQ |
| Official Site | https://www.ao-inc.com |
Market Trend Overview for AAOI
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-03-25 (ET)
As of 2026-03-25, AAOI is starting to move higher. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
AAOI last closed at 114.41. The price is about 3.9 ATR above its recent average price (104.02), and the market is currently in an early upward move. Price at 114.41 is holding above minor support near 85.08. If price continues higher, it may face minor resistance around 133.00. View Support & Resistance from Options
The broader uptrend is still intact, but price has moved far from its recent average, increasing the risk of a pullback.
Trend score: 80 out of 100. Overall alignment is strong. The market is currently in an early-stage uptrend. Trend signals are well aligned across timeframes, suggesting a stable and consistent trend.
Price is far from its recent average (about 3.9 ATR away). Chasing the move at this level carries a higher risk of a pullback.
A key downside level is near 50.72. If price falls below this area, the current upward trend would likely weaken or break.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-03-25, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
Recent price action shows orderly upward progression with no major deterioration in bar-level efficiency. Structural conditions remain broadly constructive.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This reading is based on the last 20 trading days of 15-minute price, volume, and VWAP data. Price is trading 13.7% above the recent estimated cost basis of 100.61, which keeps the recent cost structure in a clearly stronger position. Price is above the main cost band (92.93 to 100.62), and about 89% of recent positioning is already in profit. That supports trend strength, but it also raises the chance of profit-taking if momentum cools. The lower down support area sits around 91.71 to 103.45. It looks more like a first buffer than a major floor. From a trading point of view, the trend still has support, but because the main support sits lower down around 91.71 to 103.45, the key is whether pullbacks remain controlled before dropping back into that zone.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for AAOI
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is within its typical range, with no clear imbalance between buyers and sellers. (Historical percentile: 50%)
Structure Analysis
AAOI Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 1.7 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 0/100, DTC percentile 25%) despite a strong upward price move (20D return 96.9%).
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-02-27 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.