Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NYSE • Sector: Consumer Defensive • Industry: Agricultural Farm Products
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Profile & Business Summary
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises agricultural commodities, products, and ingredients in the United States, Switzerland, Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition. It procures, stores, cleans, and transports agricultural raw materials, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, and barley. The company also engages in the agricultural commodity and feed product import, export, and distribution; and structured trade finance activities. In addition, it offers vegetable oils and protein meals; ingredients for the food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; crude vegetable oils, salad oils, margarine, shortening, and other food products; and partially refined oils to produce biodiesel and glycols for use in chemicals, paints, and other industrial products. Further, the company provides peanuts, peanut-derived ingredients, and cotton cellulose pulp; sweeteners, corn and wheat starches, syrup, glucose, wheat flour, and dextrose; alcohol and other food and animal feed ingredients; ethyl alcohol and ethanol; corn gluten feed and meal; distillers' grains; and citric acids. Additionally, the company provides natural flavors, flavor systems, natural colors, proteins, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, and natural health and nutrition products, including probiotics, prebiotics, enzymes, and botanical extracts; and other specialty food and feed ingredients; edible beans; formula feeds, and animal health and nutrition products; and contract and private label pet treats and foods. It also offers futures commission merchant; commodity brokerage services; cash margins and securities pledged to commodity exchange clearinghouses; and cash pledged as security under certain insurance arrangements. The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Key Information
| Ticker | ADM |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NYSE |
| Official Site | https://www.adm.com |
Market Trend Overview for ADM
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-08-17 (ET)
As of 2026-08-17, ADM is moving sideways without a clear direction. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
ADM last closed at 81.29. The price is about 0.7 ATR above its recent average price (79.61), and the market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. Price at 81.29 is moving between minor support near 77.30 and minor resistance near 81.75. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
The market is moving sideways, with no clear direction. Both upside and downside risks remain in play.
Trend score: 35 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
There is no clear key risk boundary right now.
On 2026-07-29, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.
[2026-07-24] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent price action shows orderly upward progression with no major deterioration in bar-level efficiency. Structural conditions remain broadly constructive.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
The model sees a bullish edge, with 60.3% upside probability and a still-actionable balance between confirmation and reversal risk.
Up probability is 60.3%, with predictability at 55% and signal agreement at 93%. Reversal risk is 25%. That suggests the directional case is supported by broad confirmation and still retains usable quality. At the same time, price is still close to a gamma transition zone.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 18 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-08-17. The current price is 81.29, 1.08% above the estimated average cost of 80.42. An estimated 75.3% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 24.0% is above it. The peak-density price is 80.25. The largest concentrated cost region is 79.38 to 80.73 and contains 40.5% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 81.03 to 81.68 cost region. The nearest region below the current price is 79.38 to 80.73. The nearest region above the current price is 83.12 to 83.43.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for ADM
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is within its typical range, with no clear imbalance between buyers and sellers. (Historical percentile: 56%)
Structure Analysis
ADM Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 4.2 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 6/100, DTC percentile 71%).
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Price action is compressing (range is tightening), which can make breaks more sensitive. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-07-31 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.