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Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) Corporate Logo

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) Stock Price & Analysis

Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Industrials • Industry: Staffing & Employment Services

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) Profile & Business Summary

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management solutions worldwide. It operates in two segments, Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO). The Employer Services segment offers strategic, cloud-based platforms, and human resources (HR) outsourcing solutions. Its offerings include payroll, benefits administration, talent management, HR management, workforce management, insurance, retirement, and compliance services, as well as integrated HCM solutions. The PEO Services segment provides HR outsourcing solutions to small and mid-sized businesses through a co-employment model. This segment offers benefits package, protection and compliance, talent engagement, expertise, comprehensive outsourcing, and recruitment process outsourcing services. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Roseland, New Jersey.

Key Information

Ticker ADP
Exchange NASDAQ
Official Site https://www.adp.com
CIK Number 0000008670
View SEC Filings

Market Trend Overview for ADP

One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.

Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)

Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-08-28 (ET)

As of 2026-08-28, ADP is in a strong upward move. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.

ADP last closed at 287.48. The price is about 2.6 ATR above its recent average price (271.85), and the market is currently in a strong upward move. Price at 287.48 is holding above minor support near 265.90. If price continues higher, it may face minor resistance around 297.09. View Support & Resistance from Options

The broader uptrend is still intact, but price has moved far from its recent average, increasing the risk of a pullback.

Trend Alignment Summary

Trend score: 95 out of 100. Overall alignment is strong. The market is currently in a strong and established uptrend. Trend signals are well aligned across timeframes, suggesting a stable and consistent trend.

Pullback Risk

Price is stretched well above its recent average (about 2.6 ATR). Upside extension is elevated, and chasing strength here carries a higher pullback risk.

Key Risk Level

A key downside risk boundary is near 256.62. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.

Recent Trend Signal

A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-07-01, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.

Unusual Price Movement

[2026-08-14] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.

Recent Price Behavior

Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.

Overnight Positioning

Closing activity showed limited conviction and did not suggest strong overnight positioning.

Next-day directional probability forecast Last updated: 2026-08-28 (ET)
Next-session outlook for 2026-08-31 (ET)
Bullish lean, but not actionable

What the model sees

The model does not deploy the setup because the current position looks stretched and more vulnerable to pullback or digestion.


Why the model says this

The model does not deploy this setup because recent price behavior has shown failed reversal memory. Predictability is 63%, agreement is 93%, and reversal risk is 14%.

NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history

Recent Cost Distribution Last updated: 2026-08-28 (ET)

This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 27 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-08-28. The current price is 287.48, 6.02% above the estimated average cost of 271.15. An estimated 99.9% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 0.1% is above it. The peak-density price is 272.20. The largest concentrated cost region is 269.05 to 273.75 and contains 33.3% of the estimated distribution. The nearest region below the current price is 284.35 to 284.75.

Short Interest & Covering Risk for ADP

This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.

Squeeze Score 0.48

Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.

Key Market Risk Indicators
Short Crowding (Short Interest / Float) 3.32%
Short Positions Trend Not Increasing
Liquidity Trend (Average Daily Volume) 1.08%
20-Day Return 7.89%
Price vs 20-Day High Trading Near Highs

Short Exposure Percentile

Short interest is above its usual range, suggesting rising pressure on short positions, though not yet extreme. (Historical percentile: 67%)

Structure Analysis

ADP Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 5.0 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 24/100, DTC percentile 64%) while price maintains a mild upward bias (20D return 7.9%).

Risk Summary

No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.

Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?

Price action is compressing (range is tightening), which can make breaks more sensitive. Price is consolidating near highs with a weak upward bias; surface strength may mask a more fragile structure. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. High-level consolidation and compression suggest a fragile upside structure. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.


Note: Short interest data is reported every two weeks by FINRA. The most recent snapshot is 2026-07-31 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.

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