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The AES Corporation (AES) Corporate Logo

The AES Corporation (AES) Stock Price & Analysis

Market: NYSE • Sector: Utilities • Industry: Diversified Utilities

The AES Corporation (AES) Profile & Business Summary

The AES Corporation operates as a diversified power generation and utility company. It owns and/or operates power plants to generate and sell power to customers, such as utilities, industrial users, and other intermediaries. The company also owns and/or operates utilities to generate or purchase, distribute, transmit, and sell electricity to end-user customers in the residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental sectors; and generates and sells electricity on the wholesale market. It uses a range of fuels and technologies to generate electricity, including coal, gas, hydro, wind, solar, and biomass; and renewables, such as energy storage and landfill gas. The company owns and/or operates a generation portfolio of approximately 31,459 megawatts. It has operations in the United States, Puerto Rico, El Salvador, Chile, Colombia, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, and Asia. The company was formerly known as Applied Energy Services, Inc. and changed its name to The AES Corporation in April 2000. The AES Corporation was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.

Key Information

Ticker AES
Exchange NYSE
Official Site https://www.aes.com
CIK Number 0000874761
View SEC Filings

Market Trend Overview for AES

One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.

Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)

Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-08-28 (ET)

As of 2026-08-28, AES is moving sideways with low volatility. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.

AES last closed at 14.73. The price is about 0.2 ATR below its recent average price (14.75), and the market is currently in a sideways market with low volatility. Price at 14.73 is moving between minor support near 14.66 and light resistance near 14.74. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options

Price is moving in a tight range. This often leads to a stronger move once the range breaks, increasing one-sided risk.

Trend Alignment Summary

Trend score: 40 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways phase with tightening price movement. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.

Key Risk Level

A key downside risk boundary is near 14.67. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.

Recent Trend Signal

On 2026-07-31, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.

Unusual Price Movement

[2026-08-11] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.

Recent Price Behavior

Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.

Overnight Positioning

There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.

Next-day directional probability forecast Last updated: 2026-08-28 (ET)
Next-session outlook for 2026-08-31 (ET)
No clear next-day edge

What the model sees

The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.


Why the model says this

The model does not issue an actionable directional forecast. Predictability is 56%, agreement is 86%, and reversal risk is 13%.

NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history

Recent Cost Distribution Last updated: 2026-08-28 (ET)

This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 27 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-08-28. The current price is 14.73, 0.10% below the estimated average cost of 14.74. An estimated 39.7% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 45.2% is above it. The peak-density price is 14.72. The largest concentrated cost region is 14.71 to 14.78 and contains 72.4% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 14.71 to 14.78 cost region.

Short Interest & Covering Risk for AES

This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.

Squeeze Score 0.59

Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.

Key Market Risk Indicators
Short Crowding (Short Interest / Float) 2.90%
Short Positions Trend Not Increasing
Liquidity Trend (Average Daily Volume) -35.84%
20-Day Return 0.34%
Price vs 20-Day High Trading Near Highs

Short Exposure Percentile

Short interest is relatively low, indicating limited pressure from short positions. (Historical percentile: 5%)

Structure Analysis

AES Short positioning is starting to look crowded. Current days to cover is 3.1 trading days, meaning short positions would unwind somewhat slower than average. Short covering could add extra momentum to price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 18/100, DTC percentile 87%) as price consolidates near recent highs (20D return 0.3%) and liquidity contracting meaningfully (volume -36%). Positioning is historically elevated, although price and liquidity conditions do not yet confirm structural fragility.

Risk Summary

No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.

Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?

Days-to-Cover is elevated versus its own history, but absolute short interest remains moderate. Average trading volume is weakening, indicating contracting liquidity. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 2× larger than usual.


Note: Short interest data is reported every two weeks by FINRA. The most recent snapshot is 2026-07-31 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.

Analytical Modules