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Aflac Incorporated (AFL) Corporate Logo

Aflac Incorporated (AFL) Stock Price & Analysis

Market: NYSE • Sector: Financial Services • Industry: Insurance - Life

Aflac Incorporated (AFL) Profile & Business Summary

Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental health and life insurance products. It operates through two segments, Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. The Aflac Japan segment offers cancer, medical, nursing care income support, GIFT, and whole and term life insurance products, as well as WAYS and child endowment plans under saving type insurance products in Japan. The Aflac U.S. segment provides cancer, accident, short-term disability, critical illness, hospital indemnity, dental, vision, long-term care and disability, and term and whole life insurance products in the United States. It sells its products through sales associates, brokers, independent corporate agencies, individual agencies, and affiliated corporate agencies. The company was founded in 1955 and is based in Columbus, Georgia.

Key Information

Ticker AFL
Exchange NYSE
Official Site https://www.aflac.com
CIK Number 0000004977
View SEC Filings

Market Trend Overview for AFL

One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.

Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)

Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-03-25 (ET)

As of 2026-03-25, AFL is moving sideways without a clear direction. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.

AFL last closed at 107.21. The price is about 0.6 ATR below its recent average price (108.16), and the market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. Price at 107.21 is moving between light support near 107.01 and minor resistance near 110.14. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options

The market is moving sideways, with no clear direction. Both upside and downside risks remain in play.

Trend Alignment Summary

Trend score: 35 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.

Key Risk Level

There is no clear risk level acting as a key boundary right now.

Recent Trend Signal

On 2026-02-23, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.

Unusual Price Movement

[2026-03-13] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.

Recent Price Behavior

Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.

Overnight Positioning

There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.

Next-day directional probability forecast Last updated: 2026-03-25 (ET)
Next-session outlook for 2026-03-26 (ET)
No clear next-day edge

What the model sees

The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.


Why the model says this

The model does not deploy this setup because predictability is still too low and internal signals are not aligned strongly enough. Predictability is 30%, agreement is 31%, and reversal risk is 18%.

NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history

Recent Cost Distribution Last updated: 2026-03-25 (ET)

This reading is based on the last 20 trading days of 15-minute price, volume, and VWAP data. Price is modestly below the recent estimated cost basis of 108.61, so the recent structure is still leaning somewhat under pressure. Price is in the upper half of the main cost band (106.33 to 107.21), which is usually a healthier short-term location because price is holding the stronger side of recent trading activity. The next higher selling area sits around 107.52 to 107.61, so rebounds may begin to slow as price pushes into that zone. Recent positioning looks fairly balanced, with 40% in profit and 60% under water. From a trading point of view, the main question is whether rebounds can keep enough quality to push through the next overhead supply zone.

Short Interest & Covering Risk for AFL

This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.

Squeeze Score 0.91

Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.

Key Market Risk Indicators
Short Crowding (Short Interest / Float) 1.79%
Short Positions Trend Increasing
Liquidity Trend (Average Daily Volume) -18.60%
20-Day Return -4.65%
Price vs 20-Day High Below Recent Highs

Short Exposure Percentile

Short interest is within its typical range, with no clear imbalance between buyers and sellers. (Historical percentile: 50%)

Structure Analysis

AFL Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 3.8 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 13/100, DTC percentile 75%) with short positioning continuing to expand and liquidity softening modestly (volume -19%).

Risk Summary

No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.

Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?

Days-to-Cover is elevated versus its own history, but absolute short interest remains moderate. In the latest reporting period, short interest continues to increase. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.


Note: Short interest data is reported every two weeks by FINRA. The most recent snapshot is 2026-02-27 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.

Analytical Modules