Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Financial Services • Industry: Asset Management
Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) Profile & Business Summary
Ares Capital Corporation is a business development company specializing in acquisition, recapitalization, mezzanine debt, restructurings, rescue financing, and leveraged buyout transactions of middle market companies. It also makes growth capital and general refinancing. It prefers to make investments in companies engaged in the basic and growth manufacturing, business services, consumer products, health care products and services, and information technology service sectors. The fund will also consider investments in industries such as restaurants, retail, oil and gas, and technology sectors. It focuses on investments in Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Southwest regions from its New York office, the Midwest region, from the Chicago office, and the Western region from the Los Angeles office. The fund typically invests between $20 million and $200 million and a maximum of $400 million in companies with an EBITDA between $10 million and $250 million. It makes debt investments between $10 million and $100 million The fund invests through revolvers, first lien loans, warrants, unitranche structures, second lien loans, mezzanine debt, private high yield, junior capital, subordinated debt, and non-control preferred and common equity. The fund also selectively considers third-party-led senior and subordinated debt financings and opportunistically considers the purchase of stressed and discounted debt positions. The fund prefers to be an agent and/or lead the transactions in which it invests. The fund also seeks board representation in its portfolio companies.
Key Information
| Ticker | ARCC |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NASDAQ |
| Official Site | https://www.arescapitalcorp.com |
Market Trend Overview for ARCC
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-08-28 (ET)
As of 2026-08-28, ARCC is moving sideways without a clear direction. Over the longer term, the trend remains bearish.
ARCC last closed at 19.95. The price is about 1.2 ATR above its recent average price (19.52), and the market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. Price at 19.95 is moving between minor support near 19.57 and minor resistance near 20.23. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
The market is moving sideways, with no clear direction. Both upside and downside risks remain in play.
Trend score: 35 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. The longer-term trend is still negative, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
A key downside risk boundary is near 19.17. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-06-29, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
[2026-08-25] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.
The model does not deploy this setup because recent price behavior has shown failed reversal memory. Predictability is 55%, agreement is 86%, and reversal risk is 12%.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 27 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-08-28. The current price is 19.95, 2.12% above the estimated average cost of 19.54. An estimated 78.9% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 18.9% is above it. The peak-density price is 19.92. The largest concentrated cost region is 19.78 to 20.07 and contains 43.3% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 19.78 to 20.07 cost region. The nearest region below the current price is 19.60 to 19.74.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for ARCC
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is relatively low, indicating limited pressure from short positions. (Historical percentile: 36%)
Structure Analysis
ARCC Short positioning is starting to look crowded. Current days to cover is 9.2 trading days, meaning short positions would unwind more slowly than usual. Short covering could add extra momentum to price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 24/100, DTC percentile 98%) while price maintains a mild upward bias (20D return 6.3%) and liquidity softening modestly (volume -12%). Positioning is historically elevated, although price and liquidity conditions do not yet confirm structural fragility. Short positioning is at extreme historical levels.
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Days-to-Cover is elevated versus its own history, but absolute short interest remains moderate. Price action is compressing (range is tightening), which can make breaks more sensitive. Price is consolidating near highs with a weak upward bias; surface strength may mask a more fragile structure. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. High-level consolidation and compression suggest a fragile upside structure. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 2× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-07-31 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.