Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Financial Services • Industry: Asset Management
Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) Profile & Business Summary
Ares Capital Corporation is a business development company specializing in acquisition, recapitalization, mezzanine debt, restructurings, rescue financing, and leveraged buyout transactions of middle market companies. It also makes growth capital and general refinancing. It prefers to make investments in companies engaged in the basic and growth manufacturing, business services, consumer products, health care products and services, and information technology service sectors. The fund will also consider investments in industries such as restaurants, retail, oil and gas, and technology sectors. It focuses on investments in Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Southwest regions from its New York office, the Midwest region, from the Chicago office, and the Western region from the Los Angeles office. The fund typically invests between $20 million and $200 million and a maximum of $400 million in companies with an EBITDA between $10 million and $250 million. It makes debt investments between $10 million and $100 million The fund invests through revolvers, first lien loans, warrants, unitranche structures, second lien loans, mezzanine debt, private high yield, junior capital, subordinated debt, and non-control preferred and common equity. The fund also selectively considers third-party-led senior and subordinated debt financings and opportunistically considers the purchase of stressed and discounted debt positions. The fund prefers to be an agent and/or lead the transactions in which it invests. The fund also seeks board representation in its portfolio companies.
Key Information
| Ticker | ARCC |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NASDAQ |
| Official Site | https://www.arescapitalcorp.com |
Market Trend Overview for ARCC
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-07-14 (ET)
As of 2026-07-14, ARCC is starting to move higher. Over the longer term, the trend remains bearish.
ARCC last closed at 18.79. The price is about 0.7 ATR above its recent average price (18.47), and the market is currently in an early upward move. Price at 18.79 is holding above light support near 18.58. If price continues higher, it may face light resistance around 19.05. View Support & Resistance from Options
Short-term and long-term trends are aligned to the downside, keeping downside risk dominant.
Trend score: 55 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in an early-stage uptrend. The longer-term trend is still negative, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
There is no clear key risk boundary right now.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-06-29, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
[2026-07-13] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent price movement appears increasingly driven by low-effort advances. Such hollow progression often reflects reduced participation and lower reliability of continuation.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.
The model does not deploy this setup because price is still close to a gamma transition zone, recent price behavior has shown failed reversal memory, and there is meaningful next-session pullback or digestion risk. Predictability is 41%, agreement is 93%, and reversal risk is 24%.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This reading is based on the last 20 trading days of 15-minute price, volume, and VWAP data. Price is modestly above the recent estimated cost basis of 18.48, so the recent structure is still on the firmer side. Price is in the upper half of the main cost band (18.58 to 18.83), which is usually a healthier short-term location because price is holding the stronger side of recent trading activity. The lower down support area sits around 18.28 to 18.36. It looks more like a first buffer than a major floor. About 88% of recent positioning is in profit, which is a strong backdrop, but it also means momentum needs to stay healthy to avoid profit-taking pressure. The main cost band is fairly wide relative to recent ATR, so this structure may behave less cleanly than a tighter setup. From a trading point of view, the trend still has support, but because the main support sits lower down around 18.28 to 18.36, the key is whether pullbacks remain controlled before dropping back into that zone.