ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Technology • Industry: Semiconductors
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Profile & Business Summary
ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, markets, sells, and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems for chipmakers. It offers advanced semiconductor equipment systems, including lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. The company also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, it offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, the company provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.
Key Information
| Ticker | ASML |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NASDAQ |
| Official Site | https://www.asml.com |
Market Trend Overview for ASML
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-08-17 (ET)
As of 2026-08-17, ASML is in a strong upward move. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
ASML last closed at 1883.12. The price is about 1.4 ATR above its recent average price (1803.06), and the market is currently in a strong upward move. Price at 1883.12 is holding above light support near 1802.61. If price continues higher, it may face minor resistance around 1959.04. View Support & Resistance from Options
Short-term and long-term trends are aligned, and momentum remains healthy, supporting further upside.
Trend score: 95 out of 100. Overall alignment is strong. The market is currently in a strong and established uptrend. Trend signals are well aligned across timeframes, suggesting a stable and consistent trend.
A key downside risk boundary is near 1577.33. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-08-10, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
[2026-08-10] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
As of 2026-08-17, price has extended significantly above its primary volume area, entering a liquidity-thin zone. While the uptrend remains intact, the risk of chasing strength has increased.
The model sees a credible bullish edge, with 69.0% upside probability, strong signal alignment, and reward/risk that remains meaningfully favorable.
Up probability is 69.0%, with predictability at 64% and signal agreement at 93%. Reversal risk is 29%, while reward/risk stands at 0.41. That suggests the directional case is supported by broad confirmation and still retains usable quality. At the same time, recent price behavior has shown failed reversal memory.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 18 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-08-17. The current price is 1883.12, 10.65% above the estimated average cost of 1701.80. An estimated 98.0% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 1.7% is above it. The peak-density price is 1655.00. The largest concentrated cost region is 1627.50 to 1663.50 and contains 20.9% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 1881.50 to 1886.50 cost region. The nearest region below the current price is 1867.50 to 1872.50.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for ASML
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is relatively low, indicating limited pressure from short positions. (Historical percentile: 11%)
Structure Analysis
ASML Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 1.0 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 24/100, DTC percentile 100%) while price maintains a mild upward bias (20D return 8.3%) and liquidity softening modestly (volume -6%). Positioning is historically elevated, although price and liquidity conditions do not yet confirm structural fragility. Short positioning is at extreme historical levels.
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Days-to-Cover is elevated versus its own history, but absolute short interest remains moderate. Price action is compressing (range is tightening), which can make breaks more sensitive. Price is consolidating near highs with a weak upward bias; surface strength may mask a more fragile structure. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. High-level consolidation and compression suggest a fragile upside structure. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-07-31 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.