ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Technology • Industry: Semiconductors
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Profile & Business Summary
ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, markets, sells, and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems for chipmakers. It offers advanced semiconductor equipment systems, including lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. The company also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, it offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, the company provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.
Key Information
| Ticker | ASML |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NASDAQ |
| Official Site | https://www.asml.com |
Market Trend Overview for ASML
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-06-18 (ET)
As of 2026-06-18, ASML is starting to move higher. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
ASML last closed at 1929.68. The price is about 3.4 ATR above its recent average price (1741.67), and the market is currently in an early upward move. Price at 1929.68 is holding above minor support near 1802.61. If price continues higher, it may face minor resistance around 2057.50. View Support & Resistance from Options
The broader uptrend is still intact, but price has moved far from its recent average, increasing the risk of a pullback.
Trend score: 80 out of 100. Overall alignment is strong. The market is currently in an early-stage uptrend. Trend signals are well aligned across timeframes, suggesting a stable and consistent trend.
Price is stretched well above its recent average (about 3.4 ATR). Upside extension is elevated, and chasing strength here carries a higher pullback risk.
A key downside risk boundary is near 1453.68. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-05-08, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
[2026-06-01] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
The model sees a credible bullish edge, with 63.7% upside probability, strong signal alignment, and reward/risk that remains meaningfully favorable.
Up probability is 63.7%, with predictability at 55% and signal agreement at 93%. Reversal risk is 15%, while reward/risk stands at 0.28. That suggests the directional case is supported by broad confirmation and still retains usable quality. At the same time, recent price behavior has shown failed reversal memory.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This reading is based on the last 20 trading days of 15-minute price, volume, and VWAP data. Price is trading 7.4% above the recent estimated cost basis of 1797.04, which keeps the recent cost structure in a clearly stronger position. Price is in the upper half of the main cost band (1837.09 to 1939.33), which is usually a healthier short-term location because price is holding the stronger side of recent trading activity. The lower down support area sits around 1798.41 to 1828.80. It looks more like a first buffer than a major floor. About 97% of recent positioning is in profit, which is a strong backdrop, but it also means momentum needs to stay healthy to avoid profit-taking pressure. The main cost band is fairly wide relative to recent ATR, so this structure may behave less cleanly than a tighter setup. From a trading point of view, the trend still has support, but because the main support sits lower down around 1798.41 to 1828.80, the key is whether pullbacks remain controlled before dropping back into that zone.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for ASML
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is relatively low, indicating limited pressure from short positions. (Historical percentile: 0%)
Structure Analysis
ASML Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 1.0 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 13/100, DTC percentile 100%) despite a strong upward price move (20D return 24.5%) with short positioning continuing to expand and liquidity softening modestly (volume -16%). Positioning is historically elevated, although price and liquidity conditions do not yet confirm structural fragility. Short positioning is at extreme historical levels.
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Days-to-Cover is elevated versus its own history, but absolute short interest remains moderate. In the latest reporting period, short interest continues to increase. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-05-29 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.