BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NYSE • Sector: Technology • Industry: Information Technology Services
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) Profile & Business Summary
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. provides artificial intelligence and machine learning for decision support. The company operates through two segments, Cyber & Engineering and Analytics. The Cyber & Engineering segment offers high-end technology and management consulting services. It focuses in the areas of cloud engineering and enterprise IT, cybersecurity, computer network operations and wireless, systems engineering, and strategy and program planning. The Analytics segment provides high-end technology and consulting services. This segment focuses on the areas of big data computing and analytical solutions, including predictive and prescriptive analytics solutions. Its solutions assist customers in aggregating, interpreting, and synthesizing data to enable real-time decision-making capabilities. The company is headquartered in Columbia, Maryland.
Key Information
| Ticker | BBAI |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NYSE |
| Official Site | https://bigbear.ai |
Market Trend Overview for BBAI
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-10-13 (ET)
As of 2026-10-13, BBAI is showing signs of slowing down. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
BBAI last closed at 2.39. The price is about 0.5 ATR below its recent average price (2.51), and the market is currently in a trend that may be losing strength. Price at 2.39 is near minor support around 2.18. Momentum may slow, while minor resistance sits near 2.86. View Support & Resistance from Options
Short-term weakness is unfolding within a broader uptrend, suggesting a pullback rather than a full trend reversal.
Trend score: 55 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a late-stage trend that may be losing strength. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
There is no clear key risk boundary right now.
On 2026-09-04, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.
[2026-09-29] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.
The model does not deploy this setup because the signal stack remains conflicted and recent price behavior has shown failed reversal memory. Predictability is 37%, agreement is 83%, and reversal risk is 19%.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 58 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-10-13. The current price is 2.39, 12.70% below the estimated average cost of 2.74. An estimated 7.1% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 86.9% is above it. The peak-density price is 2.39. The largest concentrated cost region is 2.72 to 2.92 and contains 24.4% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 2.35 to 2.42 cost region. The nearest region above the current price is 2.49 to 2.50.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for BBAI
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is relatively low, indicating limited pressure from short positions. (Historical percentile: 14%)
Structure Analysis
BBAI Short positioning is very crowded. Current days to cover is 10.3 trading days, meaning short covering pressure could be amplified relative to normal conditions. If covering begins, price moves could be meaningfully amplified. Price is already trending lower (20D return -15.2%). The current configuration reflects active downside pressure rather than latent structural fragility.
Risk Summary
Some early warning signs are emerging. Price strength remains intact, but underlying support may be starting to weaken.This indicator is intended as a risk filter, not a directional signal. A High or Extreme reading does not predict an immediate move, but suggests that if prices weaken, downside reactions may be more pronounced.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Short positioning is elevated both relative to its own history and in absolute short-interest terms. Average trading volume is weakening, indicating contracting liquidity. Phase: Building. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. Crowded short positioning and weakening liquidity are reinforcing each other. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 3× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-09-30 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.