BP Stock Forecast & Next-Day Prediction
This page provides a complete BP stock analysis supported by real-time market data. It includes momentum trends, volatility regimes, options positioning, ETF fund flows, macro risk indicators, and supply–demand pressure from volume distribution. It also features a BP stock forecast with a next-day probability estimate generated by WhaleQuant’s multi-factor AI prediction model.
BP Short-Term Forecast Details
Forecast Published (New York Time / ET): 2025-12-24
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1. 📊 Technical Momentum
- Momentum Score: 46.5
- Momentum is neutral with no clear directional bias at the moment.
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2. 🕯️ Candle Structure
- Candle Score: -0.29
- The candle structure leans bearish, with mild selling pressure or weak support, suggesting some downside risk in the short term.
- Overnight vs Intraday Structure: -0.14
- Bearish bias: intraday weakness dominates, indicating potential short-term downside risk.
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3. 📈 Volatility (ATR)
- ATR Score: 75.0
- Volatility Regime: LowVol
- Volatility is low with smooth price action. This environment supports cleaner trend continuation and higher signal reliability.
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4. 📦 Volume Profile
- High-Volume Zone: 35.67 ~ 35.84 (mid 35.75)
- Volume Pressure: -0.372
- Selling pressure is slightly stronger, meaning price may encounter resistance on rebounds.
- Price is below the major volume zone, suggesting overhead supply. A breakout above the zone is needed for trend continuation.
- VP Reliability: 0.46
- The Volume Profile has moderate reliability. Some recent trading activity aligns with historical volume zones, but the structure is not the dominant driver of price action.
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5. 📉 Volume Strength (Volume Score)
- Volume Score: -0.34
- Volume is slightly weak, with fading participation and limited support behind price moves.
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6. 📜 Historical Market Statistics
- Historical Probability of a 5-Day Rise (based on past similar setups): 53.92%
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7. 💹 Macro Environment
- 13-week T-Bill: 3.522 → 3.555
- DXY: 98.533 → 97.980
- VIX: 16.280 → 13.470
- Short-term yields moved higher, putting mild pressure on equity valuations; The U.S. dollar weakened, which typically benefits tech and growth sectors; VIX declined, suggesting an improvement in market risk sentiment.
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate: 3.680 → 3.660
- The secured overnight financing rate has declined noticeably, easing short-term funding conditions and supporting risk assets.
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8. 🧠 Market Sentiment
- Sentiment Index: 60.0
- ETF Risk Appetite: -0.252
- Sentiment leans toward greed; investors are more aggressive, but profit-taking pressure may rise. ETF flows tilt defensive, indicating cautious institutional sentiment.
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9. 📉 Options Structure
- IV Skew: 0.580
- Skew is moderately positive, reflecting a noticeable tilt toward upside expectations.
- GEX Index: 0.930
- GEX is strongly positive, indicating meaningful volatility compression.
- DPI: 0.297
- Dealers are slightly net-long, contributing to mild volatility dampening.
- Options structure indicates mixed signals across volatility, dealer positioning, and skew — short-term direction requires broader confirmation.
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10. 🧮 Final Prediction
- Next-Day Upside Probability: 48.68%
- BP shows a slightly pressured short-term structure, with a 48.68% upside probability. The configuration leans mildly to the downside but remains within a broadly balanced range.
📌 Structural Signal: Conditions are closer to a neutral-to-weak regime than a clear bearish trend.
📌 Positioning Tone: Short-term participants often keep risk light and wait for clearer confirmation before committing in either direction.
Data update note: Some datasets (ETF flows, aggregated sentiment indicators) update with a one-day delay. Other components — options chain data, intraday volatility, real-time liquidity and volume signals — are refreshed throughout the trading day. The model blends these signals to produce a stable and statistically calibrated short-term probability forecast.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the BP stock forecast?
The BP stock forecast evaluates short-term probability of price direction based on momentum, volatility, sentiment, macro trends, options positioning, and ETF flows.
How accurate is the next-day prediction?
While no model can guarantee outcomes, WhaleQuant’s AI engine is calibrated using historical data patterns and real-time microstructure signals to generate statistically meaningful forecasts.
How often is the BP forecast updated?
Forecasts are updated daily using real-time volatility and liquidity indicators alongside end-of-day datasets to ensure consistency and stability.