CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NYSE • Sector: Basic Materials • Industry: Agricultural Inputs
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Profile & Business Summary
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products; and compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. It primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.
Key Information
| Ticker | CF |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NYSE |
| Official Site | https://www.cfindustries.com |
Market Trend Overview for CF
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-03-25 (ET)
As of 2026-03-25, CF is moving sideways without a clear direction. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
CF last closed at 128.11. The price is about 4.0 ATR above its recent average price (119.84), and the market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. Price at 128.11 is moving between minor support near 120.11 and minor resistance near 137.44. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
The market is moving sideways, with no clear direction. Both upside and downside risks remain in play.
Trend score: 35 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
Price is far from its recent average (about 4.0 ATR away). Chasing the move at this level carries a higher risk of a pullback.
A key downside level is near 94.26. If price falls below this area, the current upward trend would likely weaken or break.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-01-14, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
[2026-03-25] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.Bearish signal near resistance (0.49 ATR away). Reversal risk is higher. Pattern is less clear, so strength is reduced.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
The model still sees a directional lean, but the edge is not thick enough after adjusting for reward/risk.
The model does not deploy this setup because the directional lean exists, but the edge is still not thick enough after risk adjustment, reward/risk remains too thin at 0.08 after adjustment, price is still close to a gamma transition zone, recent price behavior has shown failed reversal memory, and there is meaningful next-session pullback or digestion risk. Predictability is 39%, agreement is 93%, and reversal risk is 23%.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This reading is based on the last 20 trading days of 15-minute price, volume, and VWAP data. Price is trading 4.9% above the recent estimated cost basis of 122.14, which keeps the recent cost structure in a clearly stronger position. Price is in the upper half of the main cost band (125.20 to 129.71), which is usually a healthier short-term location because price is holding the stronger side of recent trading activity. The lower down support area sits around 123.22 to 123.94. It looks more like a first buffer than a major floor. About 79% of recent positioning is in profit, so the recent structure is still supported by holders who are not under immediate pressure. From a trading point of view, the trend still has support, but because the main support sits lower down around 123.22 to 123.94, the key is whether pullbacks remain controlled before dropping back into that zone.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for CF
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is within its typical range, with no clear imbalance between buyers and sellers. (Historical percentile: 50%)
Structure Analysis
CF Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 3.7 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 6/100, DTC percentile 25%) despite a strong upward price move (20D return 33.3%).
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Price action is compressing (range is tightening), which can make breaks more sensitive. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-02-27 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.