CME Group Inc. (CME) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Financial Services • Industry: Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges
CME Group Inc. (CME) Profile & Business Summary
CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, agricultural commodities, energy, and metals, as well as fixed income products. The company also provides clearing house services, including clearing, settling, and guaranteeing futures and options contracts, and cleared swaps products traded through its exchanges; and trade processing and risk mitigation services. In addition, the company offers a range of market data services, including real-time and historical data services. It serves professional traders, financial institutions, institutional and individual investors, corporations, manufacturers, producers, governments, and central banks. The company was formerly known as Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. and changed its name to CME Group Inc. in July 2007. CME Group Inc. was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Key Information
| Ticker | CME |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NASDAQ |
| Official Site | https://www.cmegroup.com |
Market Trend Overview for CME
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-08-17 (ET)
As of 2026-08-17, CME is moving sideways without a clear direction. Over the longer term, the trend remains bearish.
CME last closed at 267.88. The price is about 1.2 ATR above its recent average price (260.62), and the market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. Price at 267.88 is moving between minor support near 259.24 and light resistance near 269.00. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
The market is moving sideways, with no clear direction. Both upside and downside risks remain in play.
Trend score: 35 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. The longer-term trend is still negative, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
A key downside risk boundary is near 246.92. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-07-10, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
[2026-08-12] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
Some late-day positioning was observed, but it lacked strong overnight commitment.
The model sees a credible bullish edge, with 59.8% upside probability, strong signal alignment, and reward/risk that remains meaningfully favorable.
Up probability is 59.8%, with predictability at 67% and signal agreement at 86%. Reversal risk is 11%, while reward/risk stands at 0.30. That suggests the directional case is supported by broad confirmation and still retains usable quality. At the same time, recent price behavior has shown failed reversal memory.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 18 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-08-17. The current price is 267.88, 1.90% above the estimated average cost of 262.89. An estimated 84.5% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 15.1% is above it. The peak-density price is 263.45. The largest concentrated cost region is 262.33 to 266.27 and contains 41.4% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 267.63 to 268.77 cost region. The nearest region below the current price is 266.93 to 267.38. The nearest region above the current price is 269.08 to 269.22.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for CME
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is relatively low, indicating limited pressure from short positions. (Historical percentile: 0%)
Structure Analysis
CME Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 2.3 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 37/100, DTC percentile 79%) while price maintains a mild upward bias (20D return 9.3%) with short positioning continuing to expand and liquidity softening modestly (volume -11%).
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Days-to-Cover is elevated versus its own history, but absolute short interest remains moderate. In the latest reporting period, short interest continues to increase. Price action is compressing (range is tightening), which can make breaks more sensitive. Price is consolidating near highs with a weak upward bias; surface strength may mask a more fragile structure. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. High-level consolidation and compression suggest a fragile upside structure. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-07-31 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.