CME Group Inc. (CME) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Financial Services • Industry: Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges
CME Group Inc. (CME) Profile & Business Summary
CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, agricultural commodities, energy, and metals, as well as fixed income products. The company also provides clearing house services, including clearing, settling, and guaranteeing futures and options contracts, and cleared swaps products traded through its exchanges; and trade processing and risk mitigation services. In addition, the company offers a range of market data services, including real-time and historical data services. It serves professional traders, financial institutions, institutional and individual investors, corporations, manufacturers, producers, governments, and central banks. The company was formerly known as Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. and changed its name to CME Group Inc. in July 2007. CME Group Inc. was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Key Information
| Ticker | CME |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NASDAQ |
| Official Site | https://www.cmegroup.com |
Market Trend Overview for CME
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-03-25 (ET)
As of 2026-03-25, CME is showing signs of slowing down. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
CME last closed at 293.93. The price is about 3.2 ATR below its recent average price (310.83), and the market is currently in a trend that may be losing strength. Price at 293.93 is near minor support around 269.47. Momentum may slow, while minor resistance sits near 308.20. View Support & Resistance from Options
The broader uptrend is still intact, but price has moved far from its recent average, increasing the risk of a pullback.
Trend score: 55 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a late-stage trend that may be losing strength. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
Price is far from its recent average (about 3.2 ATR away). Chasing the move at this level carries a higher risk of a pullback.
A key downside level is near 289.68. If price falls below this area, the current upward trend would likely weaken or break.
On 2026-03-10, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.
[2026-03-18] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent price action continues to trend lower in a relatively orderly manner, with no clear signs of structural stabilization yet emerging.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This reading is based on the last 20 trading days of 15-minute price, volume, and VWAP data. Price is trading 5.2% below the recent estimated cost basis of 310.03, so the recent structure is still leaning under pressure. Price is below the main cost band (302.74 to 310.82), and roughly 99% of recent positioning remains under water. That means rebounds can still run into supply from trapped holders. The higher up selling area sits around 302.74 to 307.97, and overhead supply looks fairly concentrated there. From a trading point of view, this setup remains tougher until price can reclaim the lower edge of the main cost band near 302.74.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for CME
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is within its typical range, with no clear imbalance between buyers and sellers. (Historical percentile: 50%)
Structure Analysis
CME Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 2.2 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 0/100, DTC percentile 75%).
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Days-to-Cover is elevated versus its own history, but absolute short interest remains moderate. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-02-27 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.