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The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) Corporate Logo

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) Stock Price & Analysis

Market: NYSE • Sector: Consumer Defensive • Industry: Household & Personal Products

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) Profile & Business Summary

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures, markets, and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products worldwide. The company offers a range of skin care products, including moisturizers, serums, cleansers, toners, body care, exfoliators, acne care and oil correctors, facial masks, cleansing devices, and sun care products; and makeup products, such as lipsticks, lip glosses, mascaras, foundations, eyeshadows, nail polishes, and powders, as well as compacts, brushes, and other makeup tools. It also provides fragrance products in various forms comprising eau de parfum sprays and colognes, as well as lotions, powders, creams, candles, and soaps; and hair care products that include shampoos, conditioners, styling products, treatment, finishing sprays, and hair color products, as well as sells ancillary products and services. The company offers its products under Estée Lauder, Aramis, Clinique, Lab Series, Origins, M·A·C, Bobbi Brown, La Mer, Aveda, Jo Malone London, Bumble and bumble, Darphin, Smashbox, Le Labo, Editions de Parfums Frédéric Malle, GLAMGLOW, By Kilian, BECCA, Too Faced, Dr. Jart+, DECIEM, and The Ordinary brands. It also holds license arrangements for Tommy Hilfiger, Donna Karan New York, DKNY, Michael Kors, and Ermenegildo Zegna brands. The company sells its products through department stores, specialty-multi retailers, upscale perfumeries and pharmacies, and salons and spas; freestanding stores; its own and authorized retailer websites; third-party online malls; stores in airports; and in-flight and duty-free shops. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Key Information

Ticker EL
Exchange NYSE
Official Site https://www.elcompanies.com
CIK Number 0001001250
View SEC Filings

Market Trend Overview for EL

One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.

Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)

Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-08-17 (ET)

As of 2026-08-17, EL is moving sideways without a clear direction. Over the longer term, the trend remains bearish.

EL last closed at 84.34. The price is about 0.1 ATR below its recent average price (84.78), and the market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. Price at 84.34 is moving between light support near 82.38 and light resistance near 84.88. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options

The market is moving sideways, with no clear direction. Both upside and downside risks remain in play.

Trend Alignment Summary

Trend score: 35 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. The longer-term trend is still negative, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.

Key Risk Level

A key downside risk boundary is near 80.49. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.

Recent Trend Signal

A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-08-07, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.

Unusual Price Movement

[2026-08-06] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.

Recent Price Behavior

Recent price action continues to trend lower in a relatively orderly manner, with no clear signs of structural stabilization yet emerging.

Overnight Positioning

There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.

Next-day directional probability forecast Last updated: 2026-08-17 (ET)
Next-session outlook for 2026-08-18 (ET)
No clear next-day edge

What the model sees

The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.


Why the model says this

The model does not deploy this setup because predictability is still too low, internal signals are not aligned strongly enough, price is still close to a gamma transition zone, recent price behavior has shown failed reversal memory, and there is meaningful next-session pullback or digestion risk. Predictability is 25%, agreement is 17%, and reversal risk is 22%.

NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history

Recent Cost Distribution Last updated: 2026-08-17 (ET)

This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 18 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-08-17. The current price is 84.34, 1.42% below the estimated average cost of 85.55. An estimated 24.2% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 73.9% is above it. The peak-density price is 84.30. The largest concentrated cost region is 86.62 to 87.92 and contains 31.4% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 83.97 to 85.33 cost region. The nearest region above the current price is 86.62 to 87.92.

Short Interest & Covering Risk for EL

This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.

Squeeze Score 0.67

Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.

Key Market Risk Indicators
Short Crowding (Short Interest / Float) 3.23%
Short Positions Trend Not Increasing
Liquidity Trend (Average Daily Volume) -44.51%
20-Day Return 0.84%
Price vs 20-Day High Below Recent Highs

Short Exposure Percentile

Short interest is relatively low, indicating limited pressure from short positions. (Historical percentile: 0%)

Structure Analysis

EL Short positioning is starting to look crowded. Current days to cover is 3.7 trading days, meaning short positions would unwind more slowly than usual. Short covering could add extra momentum to price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 24/100, DTC percentile 100%) and liquidity contracting meaningfully (volume -45%). Positioning is historically elevated, although price and liquidity conditions do not yet confirm structural fragility. Short positioning is at extreme historical levels.

Risk Summary

No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.

Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?

Days-to-Cover is elevated versus its own history, but absolute short interest remains moderate. Average trading volume is weakening, indicating contracting liquidity. Price action is compressing (range is tightening), which can make breaks more sensitive. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 2× larger than usual.


Note: Short interest data is reported every two weeks by FINRA. The most recent snapshot is 2026-07-31 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.

Analytical Modules