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Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) Corporate Logo

Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) Stock Price & Analysis

Market: NYSE • Sector: Industrials • Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services

Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) Profile & Business Summary

Southwest Airlines Co. operates as a passenger airline company that provide scheduled air transportation services in the United States and near-international markets. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated a total fleet of 728 Boeing 737 aircrafts; and served 121 destinations in 42 states, the District of Columbia, and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, as well as 10 near-international countries, including Mexico, Jamaica, the Bahamas, Aruba, the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Belize, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos. It also provides inflight entertainment and connectivity services on Wi-Fi enabled aircrafts; and Rapid Rewards loyalty program that enables program members to earn points for dollars spent on Southwest base fares. In addition, the company offers a suite of digital platforms to support customers' travel needs, including websites and apps; and SWABIZ, an online booking tool. Further, it provides ancillary services, such as Southwest's EarlyBird Check-In, upgraded boarding, and transportation of pets and unaccompanied minors. The company was incorporated in 1967 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Key Information

Ticker LUV
Exchange NYSE
Official Site https://www.southwest.com
CIK Number 0000092380
View SEC Filings

Market Trend Overview for LUV

One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.

Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)

Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-08-28 (ET)

As of 2026-08-28, LUV is showing signs of slowing down. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.

LUV last closed at 39.64. The price is about 0.7 ATR below its recent average price (40.66), and the market is currently in a trend that may be losing strength. Price at 39.64 is near minor support around 37.65. Momentum may slow, while minor resistance sits near 41.84. View Support & Resistance from Options

Short-term weakness is unfolding within a broader uptrend, suggesting a pullback rather than a full trend reversal.

Trend Alignment Summary

Trend score: 55 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a late-stage trend that may be losing strength. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.

Key Risk Level

There is no clear key risk boundary right now.

Recent Trend Signal

On 2026-07-09, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.

Unusual Price Movement

[2026-08-28] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.Bearish signal in open space between key levels. Pattern is less clear, so strength is reduced.

Recent Price Behavior

Recent price movement appears increasingly driven by low-effort advances. Such hollow progression often reflects reduced participation and lower reliability of continuation.

Overnight Positioning

Some late-day positioning was observed, but it lacked strong overnight commitment.

Next-day directional probability forecast Last updated: 2026-08-28 (ET)
Next-session outlook for 2026-08-31 (ET)
Mild bearish setup for the next session

What the model sees

The model sees a bearish edge, but still treats it as a selective downside setup rather than an aggressive downside call.


Why the model says this

Up probability is only 44.0%, with predictability at 55% and agreement at 93%. Reversal risk is 15%. That suggests downside pressure is present, while the setup still remains selective rather than extreme.

NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history

Recent Cost Distribution Last updated: 2026-08-28 (ET)

This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 27 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-08-28. The current price is 39.64, 9.33% below the estimated average cost of 43.72. An estimated 0.0% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 99.8% is above it. The peak-density price is 40.40. The largest concentrated cost region is 44.52 to 45.82 and contains 33.7% of the estimated distribution. The nearest region above the current price is 39.73 to 40.92.

Short Interest & Covering Risk for LUV

This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.

Squeeze Score 0.64

Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.

Key Market Risk Indicators
Short Crowding (Short Interest / Float) 6.80%
Short Positions Trend Increasing
Liquidity Trend (Average Daily Volume) -9.76%
20-Day Return -11.85%
Price vs 20-Day High Below Recent Highs

Short Exposure Percentile

Short interest is relatively low, indicating limited pressure from short positions. (Historical percentile: 36%)

Structure Analysis

LUV Short positioning is starting to look crowded. Current days to cover is 5.7 trading days, meaning short positions would unwind more slowly than usual. Short covering could add extra momentum to price moves. Price is already trending lower (20D return -11.9%). The current configuration reflects active downside pressure rather than latent structural fragility.

Risk Summary

No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.

Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?

Days-to-Cover is elevated versus its own history, but absolute short interest remains moderate. In the latest reporting period, short interest continues to increase. Price action is compressing (range is tightening), which can make breaks more sensitive. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 2× larger than usual.


Note: Short interest data is reported every two weeks by FINRA. The most recent snapshot is 2026-07-31 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.

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