McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NYSE • Sector: Consumer Cyclical • Industry: Restaurants
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Profile & Business Summary
McDonald's Corporation operates and franchises McDonald's restaurants in the United States and internationally. Its restaurants offer hamburgers and cheeseburgers, chicken sandwiches and nuggets, wraps, fries, salads, oatmeal, shakes, desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, bakery items, soft drinks, coffee, and beverages and other beverages, as well as breakfast menu, including biscuit and bagel sandwiches, breakfast burritos, hotcakes, and other sandwiches. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 40,031 restaurants. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Key Information
| Ticker | MCD |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NYSE |
| Official Site | https://corporate.mcdonalds.com |
Market Trend Overview for MCD
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-10-13 (ET)
As of 2026-10-13, MCD is moving sideways without a clear direction. Over the longer term, the trend remains bearish.
MCD last closed at 235.81. The price is about 0.3 ATR above its recent average price (233.81), and the market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. Price at 235.81 is moving between minor support near 234.03 and minor resistance near 252.06. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
The market is moving sideways, with no clear direction. Both upside and downside risks remain in play.
Trend score: 35 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. The longer-term trend is still negative, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
There is no clear key risk boundary right now.
On 2026-06-18, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
Some late-day positioning was observed, but it lacked strong overnight commitment.
The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.
The model does not deploy this setup because predictability is still too low and price is still close to a gamma transition zone. Predictability is 30%, agreement is 63%, and reversal risk is 26%.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 58 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-10-13. The current price is 235.81, 6.23% below the estimated average cost of 251.48. An estimated 25.1% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 73.6% is above it. The peak-density price is 232.20. The largest concentrated cost region is 230.70 to 237.70 and contains 36.0% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 230.70 to 237.70 cost region. The nearest region above the current price is 247.90 to 250.10.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for MCD
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is at a very high historical level. If price moves against shorts, reactions could be sharp and volatile. (Historical percentile: 92%)
Structure Analysis
MCD Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 1.9 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. Price is already trending lower (20D return -6.7%). The current configuration reflects active downside pressure rather than latent structural fragility.
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
In the latest reporting period, short interest continues to increase. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-09-30 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.