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MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) Corporate Logo

MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) Stock Price & Analysis

Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Consumer Cyclical • Industry: Specialty Retail

MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) Profile & Business Summary

MercadoLibre, Inc. operates online commerce platforms in Latin America. It operates Mercado Libre Marketplace, an automated online commerce platform that enables businesses, merchants, and individuals to list merchandise and conduct sales and purchases online; and Mercado Pago FinTech platform, a financial technology solution platform, which facilitates transactions on and off its marketplaces by providing a mechanism that allows its users to send and receive payments online, as well as allows users to transfer money through their websites or on the apps. The company also offers Mercado Fondo that allows users to invest funds deposited in their Mercado Pago accounts; Mercado Credito, which extends loans to certain merchants and consumers; and Mercado Envios logistics solution that enables sellers on its platform to utilize third-party carriers and other logistics service providers, as well as fulfillment and warehousing services for sellers. In addition, it provides Mercado Libre Classifieds, an online classified listing service, where users can list and purchase motor vehicles, real estate, and services; Mercado Libre Ads, an advertising platform, which enables large retailers and brands to promote their products and services on the Internet; and Mercado Shops, an online storefronts solution that enables users to set-up, manage, and promote their own digital stores. MercadoLibre, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay.

Key Information

Ticker MELI
Exchange NASDAQ
Official Site https://www.mercadolibre.com
CIK Number 0001099590
View SEC Filings

Market Trend Overview for MELI

One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.

Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)

Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-08-10 (ET)

As of 2026-08-10, MELI is moving sideways with low volatility. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.

MELI last closed at 1824.34. The price is about 0.8 ATR below its recent average price (1872.24), and the market is currently in a sideways market with low volatility. Price at 1824.34 is moving between minor support near 1808.60 and minor resistance near 1836.09. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options

Price is moving in a tight range. This often leads to a stronger move once the range breaks, increasing one-sided risk.

Trend Alignment Summary

Trend score: 40 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways phase with tightening price movement. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.

Key Risk Level

A key downside risk boundary is near 1731.88. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.

Recent Trend Signal

On 2026-07-17, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.

Unusual Price Movement

[2026-07-09] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.

Recent Price Behavior

Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.

Overnight Positioning

There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.

Next-day directional probability forecast Last updated: 2026-08-10 (ET)
Next-session outlook for 2026-08-11 (ET)
No clear next-day edge

What the model sees

The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.


Why the model says this

The model does not deploy this setup because internal signals are not aligned strongly enough and price is still close to a gamma transition zone. Predictability is 42%, agreement is 41%, and reversal risk is 20%.

NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history

Recent Cost Distribution Last updated: 2026-08-10 (ET)

This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 13 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-08-10. The current price is 1824.34, 1.04% below the estimated average cost of 1843.49. An estimated 41.4% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 58.2% is above it. The peak-density price is 1866.00. The largest concentrated cost region is 1859.75 to 1886.75 and contains 23.5% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 1807.25 to 1827.25 cost region. The nearest region below the current price is 1800.75 to 1805.25. The nearest region above the current price is 1828.25 to 1834.25.

Short Interest & Covering Risk for MELI

This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.

Squeeze Score 0.74

Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.

Key Market Risk Indicators
Short Crowding (Short Interest / Float) 2.06%
Short Positions Trend Not Increasing
Liquidity Trend (Average Daily Volume) -23.57%
20-Day Return -1.70%
Price vs 20-Day High Below Recent Highs

Short Exposure Percentile

Short interest is relatively low, indicating limited pressure from short positions. (Historical percentile: 25%)

Structure Analysis

MELI Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 2.4 trading days, meaning short positions would unwind somewhat slower than average. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 18/100, DTC percentile 85%) and liquidity contracting meaningfully (volume -24%).

Risk Summary

No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.

Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?

Days-to-Cover is elevated versus its own history, but absolute short interest remains moderate. Average trading volume is weakening, indicating contracting liquidity. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 2× larger than usual.


Note: Short interest data is reported every two weeks by FINRA. The most recent snapshot is 2026-07-15 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.

Analytical Modules