The Mosaic Company (MOS) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NYSE • Sector: Basic Materials • Industry: Agricultural Inputs
The Mosaic Company (MOS) Profile & Business Summary
The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. It owns and operates mines, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and ammoniated phosphate products; and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients primarily under the Biofos and Nexfos brand names, as well as produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under K-Mag brand name. The company also produces and sells potash for use in the manufacturing of mixed crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients, and for industrial use; and for use in the de-icing and as a water softener regenerant. In addition, it provides nitrogen-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and other ancillary services; and purchases and sells phosphates, potash, and nitrogen products. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, farmers, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.
Key Information
| Ticker | MOS |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NYSE |
| Official Site | https://www.mosaicco.com |
Market Trend Overview for MOS
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-08-17 (ET)
As of 2026-08-17, MOS is moving sideways with low volatility. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
MOS last closed at 21.23. The price is about 1.1 ATR below its recent average price (22.27), and the market is currently in a sideways market with low volatility. Price at 21.23 is moving between light support near 21.17 and light resistance near 22.58. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
Price is moving in a tight range. This often leads to a stronger move once the range breaks, increasing one-sided risk.
Trend score: 40 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways phase with tightening price movement. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
There is no clear key risk boundary right now.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-07-15, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
[2026-08-12] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent price action continues to trend lower in a relatively orderly manner, with no clear signs of structural stabilization yet emerging.
Some late-day positioning was observed, but it lacked strong overnight commitment.
The model still sees a directional lean, but the edge is not thick enough after adjusting for reward/risk.
The model does not deploy this setup because the directional lean exists, but the edge is still not thick enough after risk adjustment, reward/risk remains too thin at -0.11 after adjustment, and recent price behavior has shown failed reversal memory. Predictability is 60%, agreement is 93%, and reversal risk is 20%.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 18 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-08-17. The current price is 21.23, 5.66% below the estimated average cost of 22.50. An estimated 6.7% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 93.1% is above it. The peak-density price is 21.61. The largest concentrated cost region is 22.11 to 22.71 and contains 32.5% of the estimated distribution. The nearest region above the current price is 21.60 to 21.68.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for MOS
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is relatively low, indicating limited pressure from short positions. (Historical percentile: 0%)
Structure Analysis
MOS Short positioning is starting to look crowded. Current days to cover is 4.5 trading days, meaning short positions would unwind somewhat slower than average. Short covering could add extra momentum to price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 38/100, DTC percentile 100%) with short positioning continuing to expand and liquidity contracting meaningfully (volume -22%). Positioning is historically elevated, although price and liquidity conditions do not yet confirm structural fragility. Short positioning is at extreme historical levels.
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Days-to-Cover is elevated versus its own history, but absolute short interest remains moderate. In the latest reporting period, short interest continues to increase. Average trading volume is weakening, indicating contracting liquidity. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. Rising short pressure is occurring while liquidity is deteriorating. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 2× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-07-31 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.