Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NYSE • Sector: Energy • Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Profile & Business Summary
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 7,159 brand jobber outlets in 37 states, the District of Columbia, and Mexico through independent entrepreneurs. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.
Key Information
| Ticker | MPC |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NYSE |
| Official Site | https://www.marathonpetroleum.com |
Market Trend Overview for MPC
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-08-28 (ET)
As of 2026-08-28, MPC is moving sideways without a clear direction. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
MPC last closed at 368.83. The price is about 1.5 ATR above its recent average price (355.77), and the market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. Price at 368.83 is moving between minor support near 356.69 and minor resistance near 384.68. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
The market is moving sideways, with no clear direction. Both upside and downside risks remain in play.
Trend score: 35 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
A key downside risk boundary is near 311.68. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-08-11, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
[2026-08-28] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.Bearish signal in open space between key levels. Pattern is less clear, so strength is reduced.
Recent price action shows orderly upward progression with no major deterioration in bar-level efficiency. Structural conditions remain broadly constructive.
Closing activity showed limited conviction and did not suggest strong overnight positioning.
The model sees a credible bullish edge, with 65.4% upside probability, strong signal alignment, and reward/risk that remains meaningfully favorable.
Up probability is 65.4%, with predictability at 65% and signal agreement at 93%. Reversal risk is 11%, while reward/risk stands at 0.33. That suggests the directional case is supported by broad confirmation and still retains usable quality. At the same time, recent price behavior has shown failed reversal memory.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 27 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-08-28. The current price is 368.83, 8.59% above the estimated average cost of 339.66. An estimated 99.8% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 0.1% is above it. The peak-density price is 360.40. The largest concentrated cost region is 357.10 to 365.90 and contains 44.6% of the estimated distribution. The nearest region below the current price is 357.10 to 365.90.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for MPC
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is relatively low, indicating limited pressure from short positions. (Historical percentile: 22%)
Structure Analysis
MPC Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 3.4 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 19/100, DTC percentile 71%) despite a strong upward price move (20D return 16.5%) with short positioning continuing to expand and liquidity softening modestly (volume -14%).
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
In the latest reporting period, short interest continues to increase. Price action is compressing (range is tightening), which can make breaks more sensitive. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-07-31 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.