Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NYSE • Sector: Energy • Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Profile & Business Summary
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 7,159 brand jobber outlets in 37 states, the District of Columbia, and Mexico through independent entrepreneurs. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.
Key Information
| Ticker | MPC |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NYSE |
| Official Site | https://www.marathonpetroleum.com |
Market Trend Overview for MPC
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-07-13 (ET)
As of 2026-07-13, MPC is in a strong upward move. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
MPC last closed at 296.88. The price is about 2.0 ATR above its recent average price (279.42), and the market is currently in a strong upward move. Price at 296.88 is holding above minor support near 261.57. If price continues higher, it may face minor resistance around 310.36. View Support & Resistance from Options
The trend is still positive, but signs of slowing momentum suggest growing two-sided risk.
Trend score: 95 out of 100. Overall alignment is strong. The market is currently in a strong and established uptrend. Trend signals are well aligned across timeframes, suggesting a stable and consistent trend.
Price is stretched well above its recent average (about 2.0 ATR). Upside extension is elevated, and chasing strength here carries a higher pullback risk.
A key downside risk boundary is near 241.87. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-07-01, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
[2026-06-23] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent price action shows orderly upward progression with no major deterioration in bar-level efficiency. Structural conditions remain broadly constructive.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
As of 2026-07-13, price has extended significantly above its primary volume area, entering a liquidity-thin zone. While the uptrend remains intact, the risk of chasing strength has increased.
The model sees a credible bullish edge, with 66.8% upside probability, strong signal alignment, and reward/risk that remains meaningfully favorable.
Up probability is 66.8%, with predictability at 57% and signal agreement at 88%. Reversal risk is 33%, while reward/risk stands at 0.28. That suggests the directional case is supported by broad confirmation and still retains usable quality. At the same time, recent price behavior has shown failed reversal memory.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This reading is based on the last 20 trading days of 15-minute price, volume, and VWAP data. Price is trading 10.8% above the recent estimated cost basis of 268.02, which keeps the recent cost structure in a clearly stronger position. Price is above the main cost band (276.46 to 285.09), and about 97% of recent positioning is already in profit. That supports trend strength, but it also raises the chance of profit-taking if momentum cools. The lower down support area sits around 277.46 to 283.76. It looks more like a first buffer than a major floor. There is also a nearby thin-trading zone below between 285.09 and 293.05, so downside can speed up if support fails and price drops into that area. The main cost band is fairly wide relative to recent ATR, so this structure may behave less cleanly than a tighter setup. From a trading point of view, this is still a strong structure, but it is also fairly extended. The key is whether momentum stays orderly without slipping back toward the 277.46 to 283.76 support zone.