Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Healthcare • Industry: Biotechnology
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Profile & Business Summary
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. Its respiratory vaccines include COVID-19, flu, respiratory syncytial virus, Endemic HCoV, and hMPV+PIV3 vaccines; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, human immunodeficiency virus, herpes simplex virus, and varicella-zoster virus vaccines; and public health vaccines consists of Zika and Nipah vaccines. The company also offers systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics; cancer vaccines, such as personalized cancer, KRAS, and checkpoint vaccines; intratumoral immuno-oncology products; localized regenerative, systemic intracellular, and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics. It has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca PLC; Merck & Co., Inc.; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.; Metagenomi, Inc.; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Key Information
| Ticker | MRNA |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NASDAQ |
| Official Site | https://www.modernatx.com |
Market Trend Overview for MRNA
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-10-13 (ET)
As of 2026-10-13, MRNA is moving sideways without a clear direction. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
MRNA last closed at 216.25. The price is about 4.3 ATR above its recent average price (194.46), and the market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. Price at 216.25 is moving between minor support near 182.50 and minor resistance near 239.03. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
The market is moving sideways, with no clear direction. Both upside and downside risks remain in play.
Trend score: 35 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
Price is stretched well above its recent average (about 4.3 ATR). Upside extension is elevated, and chasing strength here carries a higher pullback risk.
A key downside risk boundary is near 137.57. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-08-13, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
[2026-10-12] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
Some late-day positioning was observed, but it lacked strong overnight commitment.
The model sees a credible bullish edge, with 63.0% upside probability, strong signal alignment, and reward/risk that remains meaningfully favorable.
Up probability is 63.0%, with predictability at 52% and signal agreement at 100%. Reversal risk is 32%, while reward/risk stands at 0.32. That suggests the directional case is supported by broad confirmation and still retains usable quality. At the same time, recent price behavior has shown failed reversal memory.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 58 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-10-13. The current price is 216.25, 23.09% above the estimated average cost of 175.69. An estimated 87.2% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 11.5% is above it. The peak-density price is 219.50. The largest concentrated cost region is 186.75 to 199.75 and contains 25.0% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 213.25 to 217.75 cost region. The nearest region below the current price is 186.75 to 199.75. The nearest region above the current price is 218.75 to 220.25.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for MRNA
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is well above normal levels, increasing the risk of forced covering and sudden price moves. (Historical percentile: 88%)
Structure Analysis
MRNA Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 1.8 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 0/100, DTC percentile 19%) despite a strong upward price move (20D return 50.4%).
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-09-30 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.