Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Healthcare • Industry: Biotechnology
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Profile & Business Summary
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. Its respiratory vaccines include COVID-19, flu, respiratory syncytial virus, Endemic HCoV, and hMPV+PIV3 vaccines; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, human immunodeficiency virus, herpes simplex virus, and varicella-zoster virus vaccines; and public health vaccines consists of Zika and Nipah vaccines. The company also offers systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics; cancer vaccines, such as personalized cancer, KRAS, and checkpoint vaccines; intratumoral immuno-oncology products; localized regenerative, systemic intracellular, and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics. It has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca PLC; Merck & Co., Inc.; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.; Metagenomi, Inc.; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Key Information
| Ticker | MRNA |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NASDAQ |
| Official Site | https://www.modernatx.com |
Market Trend Overview for MRNA
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-08-28 (ET)
As of 2026-08-28, MRNA is moving sideways without a clear direction. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
MRNA last closed at 137.99. The price is about 3.3 ATR above its recent average price (127.17), and the market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. Price at 137.99 is moving between minor support near 116.03 and minor resistance near 176.66. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
The market is moving sideways, with no clear direction. Both upside and downside risks remain in play.
Trend score: 35 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
Price is stretched well above its recent average (about 3.3 ATR). Upside extension is elevated, and chasing strength here carries a higher pullback risk.
A key downside risk boundary is near 58.17. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-08-13, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
[2026-07-22] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent price action continues to trend lower in a relatively orderly manner, with no clear signs of structural stabilization yet emerging.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.
The model does not deploy this setup because internal signals are not aligned strongly enough and price is still close to a gamma transition zone. Predictability is 39%, agreement is 46%, and reversal risk is 30%.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 27 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-08-28. The current price is 137.99, 1.03% below the estimated average cost of 139.43. An estimated 30.4% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 64.2% is above it. The peak-density price is 138.00. The largest concentrated cost region is 135.25 to 154.75 and contains 65.3% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 135.25 to 154.75 cost region. The nearest region above the current price is 156.25 to 158.75.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for MRNA
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is relatively low, indicating limited pressure from short positions. (Historical percentile: 5%)
Structure Analysis
MRNA Short positioning is starting to look crowded. Current days to cover is 10.2 trading days, meaning short positions would unwind more slowly than usual. Short covering could add extra momentum to price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 18/100, DTC percentile 91%) despite a strong upward price move (20D return 151.7%) and liquidity contracting meaningfully (volume -44%). Positioning is historically elevated, although price and liquidity conditions do not yet confirm structural fragility.
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Days-to-Cover is elevated versus its own history, but absolute short interest remains moderate. Average trading volume is weakening, indicating contracting liquidity. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 3× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-07-31 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.