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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) Corporate Logo

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) Stock Price & Analysis

Market: NYSE • Sector: Real Estate • Industry: REIT - Mortgage

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) Profile & Business Summary

Annaly Capital Management, Inc., a diversified capital manager, engages in mortgage finance and corporate middle market lending. The company invests in agency mortgage-backed securities, mortgage servicing rights, Agency commercial mortgage-backed securities, non-Agency residential mortgage assets, residential mortgage loans, credit risk transfer securities, corporate debts, and other commercial real estate investments. It has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT). As a REIT, it is not subject to federal income tax to the extent that it distributes its taxable income to its shareholders. The company was founded in 1996 and is based in New York, New York.

Key Information

Ticker NLY
Exchange NYSE
Official Site https://www.annaly.com
CIK Number 0001043219
View SEC Filings

Market Trend Overview for NLY

One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.

Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)

Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-03-25 (ET)

As of 2026-03-25, NLY is showing signs of slowing down. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.

NLY last closed at 21.41. The price is about 1.5 ATR below its recent average price (21.89), and the market is currently in a trend that may be losing strength. Price at 21.41 is near minor support around 20.62. Momentum may slow, while minor resistance sits near 23.22. View Support & Resistance from Options

Short-term weakness is unfolding within a broader uptrend, suggesting a pullback rather than a full trend reversal.

Trend Alignment Summary

Trend score: 55 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a late-stage trend that may be losing strength. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.

Key Risk Level

There is no clear risk level acting as a key boundary right now.

Recent Trend Signal

On 2026-01-30, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.

Unusual Price Movement

[2026-03-13] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.

Recent Price Behavior

Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.

Overnight Positioning

There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.

Next-day directional probability forecast Last updated: 2026-03-25 (ET)
NLY is not currently in a trend-dominant environment, so the trend prediction model is not activated for this run.

NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history

Recent Cost Distribution Last updated: 2026-03-25 (ET)

This reading is based on the last 20 trading days of 15-minute price, volume, and VWAP data. Price is modestly below the recent estimated cost basis of 21.83, so the recent structure is still leaning somewhat under pressure. Price is in the upper half of the main cost band (20.74 to 21.54), which is usually a healthier short-term location because price is holding the stronger side of recent trading activity. The higher up selling area sits around 21.90 to 22.35, and overhead supply looks fairly concentrated there. Recent positioning looks fairly balanced, with 36% in profit and 64% under water. From a trading point of view, the main question is whether rebounds remain healthy enough to reach and absorb the higher overhead supply zone.

Short Interest & Covering Risk for NLY

This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.

Squeeze Score 0.40

Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.

Key Market Risk Indicators
Short Crowding (Short Interest / Float) 1.94%
Short Positions Trend Increasing
Liquidity Trend (Average Daily Volume) -13.95%
20-Day Return -6.95%
Price vs 20-Day High Below Recent Highs

Short Exposure Percentile

Short interest is relatively low, indicating limited pressure from short positions. (Historical percentile: 31%)

Structure Analysis

NLY Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 2.0 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. Price is already trending lower (20D return -7.0%). The current configuration reflects active downside pressure rather than latent structural fragility.

Risk Summary

No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.

Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?

In the latest reporting period, short interest continues to increase. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.


Note: Short interest data is reported every two weeks by FINRA. The most recent snapshot is 2026-02-27 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.

Analytical Modules