Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NYSE • Sector: Real Estate • Industry: REIT - Mortgage
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) Profile & Business Summary
Annaly Capital Management, Inc., a diversified capital manager, engages in mortgage finance and corporate middle market lending. The company invests in agency mortgage-backed securities, mortgage servicing rights, Agency commercial mortgage-backed securities, non-Agency residential mortgage assets, residential mortgage loans, credit risk transfer securities, corporate debts, and other commercial real estate investments. It has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT). As a REIT, it is not subject to federal income tax to the extent that it distributes its taxable income to its shareholders. The company was founded in 1996 and is based in New York, New York.
Key Information
| Ticker | NLY |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NYSE |
| Official Site | https://www.annaly.com |
Market Trend Overview for NLY
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-08-28 (ET)
As of 2026-08-28, NLY is moving sideways without a clear direction. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
NLY last closed at 23.04. The price is about 0.2 ATR below its recent average price (23.10), and the market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. Price at 23.04 is moving between minor support near 22.45 and light resistance near 23.10. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
The market is moving sideways, with no clear direction. Both upside and downside risks remain in play.
Trend score: 35 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
A key downside risk boundary is near 22.38. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.
On 2026-08-26, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.
[2026-08-27] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent price movement appears increasingly driven by low-effort advances. Such hollow progression often reflects reduced participation and lower reliability of continuation.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.
The model does not deploy this setup because price is still close to a gamma transition zone. Predictability is 37%, agreement is 60%, and reversal risk is 25%.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 27 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-08-28. The current price is 23.04, 0.15% above the estimated average cost of 23.01. An estimated 49.5% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 47.2% is above it. The peak-density price is 23.04. The largest concentrated cost region is 23.01 to 23.23 and contains 33.6% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 23.01 to 23.23 cost region. The nearest region below the current price is 22.88 to 22.95. The nearest region above the current price is 23.29 to 23.41.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for NLY
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is above its usual range, suggesting rising pressure on short positions, though not yet extreme. (Historical percentile: 62%)
Structure Analysis
NLY Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 2.6 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 19/100, DTC percentile 73%) with short positioning continuing to expand.
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
In the latest reporting period, short interest continues to increase. Price action is compressing (range is tightening), which can make breaks more sensitive. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-07-31 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.