On Holding AG (ONON) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NYSE • Sector: Consumer Cyclical • Industry: Apparel - Retail
On Holding AG (ONON) Profile & Business Summary
On Holding AG develops and distributes sports products worldwide. It offers athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company offers its products through independent retailers and distributors, online, and stores. On Holding AG was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
Key Information
| Ticker | ONON |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NYSE |
| Official Site | https://www.on-running.com |
Market Trend Overview for ONON
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-10-01 (ET)
As of 2026-10-01, ONON is starting to move higher. Over the longer term, the trend remains bearish.
ONON last closed at 30.20. The price is about 0.5 ATR above its recent average price (29.47), and the market is currently in an early upward move. Price at 30.20 is holding above light support near 30.11. If price continues higher, it may face light resistance around 31.00. View Support & Resistance from Options
Short-term and long-term trends are aligned to the downside, keeping downside risk dominant.
Trend score: 55 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in an early-stage uptrend. The longer-term trend is still negative, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
There is no clear key risk boundary right now.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-09-23, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
The model still sees a directional lean, but the edge is not thick enough after adjusting for reward/risk.
The model does not deploy this setup because the directional lean exists, but the edge is still not thick enough after risk adjustment, reward/risk remains too thin at 0.13 after adjustment, and price is still close to a gamma transition zone. Predictability is 38%, agreement is 93%, and reversal risk is 29%.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 50 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-10-01. The current price is 30.20, 1.81% above the estimated average cost of 29.66. An estimated 65.2% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 32.3% is above it. The peak-density price is 30.25. The largest concentrated cost region is 29.33 to 31.07 and contains 54.4% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 29.33 to 31.07 cost region. The nearest region below the current price is 28.88 to 28.97.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for ONON
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is above its usual range, suggesting rising pressure on short positions, though not yet extreme. (Historical percentile: 73%)
Structure Analysis
ONON Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 3.1 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 37/100, DTC percentile 23%) while price maintains a mild upward bias (20D return 8.6%) with short positioning continuing to expand.
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
In the latest reporting period, short interest continues to increase. Price action is compressing (range is tightening), which can make breaks more sensitive. Price is consolidating near highs with a weak upward bias; surface strength may mask a more fragile structure. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. High-level consolidation and compression suggest a fragile upside structure. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-09-15 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.