O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Consumer Cyclical • Industry: Auto - Parts
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) Profile & Business Summary
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States. The company provides new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting products, and oil and wiper blades; and accessories, including floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories. Its stores offer auto body paint and related materials, automotive tools, and professional service provider service equipment. The company's stores also provide enhanced services and programs comprising used oil, oil filter, and battery recycling; battery, wiper, and bulb replacement; battery diagnostic testing; electrical and module testing; check engine light code extraction; loaner tool program; drum and rotor resurfacing; custom hydraulic hoses; and professional paint shop mixing and related materials. Its stores offer do-it-yourself and professional service provider customers a selection of products for domestic and imported automobiles, vans, and trucks. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated 5,759 stores in the United States, and 25 stores in Mexico. O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.
Key Information
| Ticker | ORLY |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NASDAQ |
| Official Site | https://www.oreillyauto.com |
Market Trend Overview for ORLY
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-10-13 (ET)
As of 2026-10-13, ORLY is moving sideways with low volatility. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
ORLY last closed at 86.03. The price is about 0.1 ATR below its recent average price (86.28), and the market is currently in a sideways market with low volatility. Price at 86.03 is moving between light support near 85.31 and minor resistance near 87.45. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
Price is moving in a tight range. This often leads to a stronger move once the range breaks, increasing one-sided risk.
Trend score: 40 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways phase with tightening price movement. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
There is no clear key risk boundary right now.
On 2026-08-28, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.
[2026-10-13] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.Bearish signal near support (0.41 ATR away). Buyers may defend this level. Pattern is less clear, so strength is reduced.
Recent price movement appears increasingly driven by low-effort advances. Such hollow progression often reflects reduced participation and lower reliability of continuation.
Selling pressure increased into the close, but price action remained uneven and lacked clean continuation.
The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.
The model does not deploy this setup because predictability is still too low, internal signals are not aligned strongly enough, and price is still close to a gamma transition zone. Predictability is 6%, agreement is 22%, and reversal risk is 28%.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 58 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-10-13. The current price is 86.03, 2.04% below the estimated average cost of 87.82. An estimated 33.3% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 65.3% is above it. The peak-density price is 86.00. The largest concentrated cost region is 84.42 to 87.03 and contains 44.7% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 84.42 to 87.03 cost region. The nearest region below the current price is 83.42 to 83.73. The nearest region above the current price is 87.17 to 87.48.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for ORLY
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is well above normal levels, increasing the risk of forced covering and sudden price moves. (Historical percentile: 77%)
Structure Analysis
ORLY Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 3.6 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 0/100, DTC percentile 72%) as price consolidates near recent highs (20D return 1.0%).
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-09-30 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.