Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Technology • Industry: Software - Infrastructure
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) Profile & Business Summary
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. operates as a financial technology company in Israel, the United States, and the Cayman Islands. It develops and implements proprietary artificial intelligence technology and related software solutions to assist partners to originate loans and other assets. Its partners include high-growth financial technology companies, incumbent financial institutions, auto finance providers, and brokers. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel.
Key Information
| Ticker | PGY |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NASDAQ |
| Official Site | https://www.pagaya.com |
Market Trend Overview for PGY
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-06-25 (ET)
As of 2026-06-25, PGY is moving sideways with low volatility. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
PGY last closed at 15.48. The price is about 1.1 ATR above its recent average price (14.48), and the market is currently in a sideways market with low volatility. Price at 15.48 is moving between minor support near 13.75 and light resistance near 15.57. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
Price is moving in a tight range. This often leads to a stronger move once the range breaks, increasing one-sided risk.
Trend score: 40 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways phase with tightening price movement. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
A key downside risk boundary is near 12.12. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-05-29, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
The model sees a bullish edge, with 59.1% upside probability and a still-actionable balance between confirmation and reversal risk.
Up probability is 59.1%, with predictability at 48% and signal agreement at 88%. Reversal risk is 19%, while reward/risk stands at 0.19. That suggests the directional case is supported by broad confirmation and still retains usable quality.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This reading is based on the last 20 trading days of 15-minute price, volume, and VWAP data. Price is modestly above the recent estimated cost basis of 15.25, so the recent structure is still on the firmer side. Price is above the main cost band (14.97 to 15.37), and about 65% of recent positioning is already in profit. That supports trend strength, but it also raises the chance of profit-taking if momentum cools. The higher up selling area sits around 15.97 to 16.05. From a trading point of view, the main question is whether rebounds remain healthy enough to reach and absorb the higher overhead supply zone.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for PGY
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is within its typical range, with no clear imbalance between buyers and sellers. (Historical percentile: 41%)
Structure Analysis
PGY Short positioning is starting to look crowded. Current days to cover is 4.0 trading days, meaning short positions would unwind somewhat slower than average. Short covering could add extra momentum to price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 30/100, DTC percentile 77%) despite a strong upward price move (20D return 13.4%).
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Short positioning is elevated both relative to its own history and in absolute short-interest terms. Price action is compressing (range is tightening), which can make breaks more sensitive. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 2× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-05-29 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.