Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Technology • Industry: Software - Infrastructure
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) Profile & Business Summary
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. operates as a financial technology company in Israel, the United States, and the Cayman Islands. It develops and implements proprietary artificial intelligence technology and related software solutions to assist partners to originate loans and other assets. Its partners include high-growth financial technology companies, incumbent financial institutions, auto finance providers, and brokers. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel.
Key Information
| Ticker | PGY |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NASDAQ |
| Official Site | https://www.pagaya.com |
Market Trend Overview for PGY
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-03-25 (ET)
As of 2026-03-25, PGY is moving sideways with low volatility. Over the longer term, the trend remains bearish.
PGY last closed at 11.59. The price is about 0.0 ATR above its recent average price (11.58), and the market is currently in a sideways market with low volatility. Price at 11.59 is moving between minor support near 10.81 and minor resistance near 12.53. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
Price is moving in a tight range. This often leads to a stronger move once the range breaks, increasing one-sided risk.
Trend score: 40 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways phase with tightening price movement. The longer-term trend is still negative, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
There is no clear risk level acting as a key boundary right now.
On 2026-01-09, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.
[2026-03-19] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This reading is based on the last 20 trading days of 15-minute price, volume, and VWAP data. Price is trading 3.0% above the recent estimated cost basis of 11.25, which keeps the recent cost structure in a clearly stronger position. Price is above the main cost band (10.77 to 11.22), and about 82% of recent positioning is already in profit. That supports trend strength, but it also raises the chance of profit-taking if momentum cools. From a trading point of view, the structure still looks constructive, but with so much recent positioning already in profit, the main thing to watch is whether momentum stays orderly.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for PGY
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is within its typical range, with no clear imbalance between buyers and sellers. (Historical percentile: 49%)
Structure Analysis
PGY Short positioning is starting to look crowded. Current days to cover is 3.8 trading days, meaning short positions would unwind somewhat slower than average. Short covering could add extra momentum to price moves. Early signs of positioning pressure are emerging (Fragility Score 45/100, DTC percentile 79%) with short positioning continuing to expand.
Risk Summary
Some early warning signs are emerging. Price strength remains intact, but underlying support may be starting to weaken.This indicator is intended as a risk filter, not a directional signal. A High or Extreme reading does not predict an immediate move, but suggests that if prices weaken, downside reactions may be more pronounced.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Short positioning is elevated both relative to its own history and in absolute short-interest terms. In the latest reporting period, short interest continues to increase. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. Crowded positioning is being reinforced by continued short build-up. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 2× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-02-27 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.