Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Technology • Industry: Software - Infrastructure
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) Profile & Business Summary
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. operates as a financial technology company in Israel, the United States, and the Cayman Islands. It develops and implements proprietary artificial intelligence technology and related software solutions to assist partners to originate loans and other assets. Its partners include high-growth financial technology companies, incumbent financial institutions, auto finance providers, and brokers. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel.
Key Information
| Ticker | PGY |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NASDAQ |
| Official Site | https://www.pagaya.com |
Market Trend Overview for PGY
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-08-10 (ET)
As of 2026-08-10, PGY is moving sideways without a clear direction. Over the longer term, the trend remains bearish.
PGY last closed at 21.60. The price is about 2.2 ATR above its recent average price (19.88), and the market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. Price at 21.60 is moving between minor support near 16.62 and minor resistance near 23.22. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
The market is moving sideways, with no clear direction. Both upside and downside risks remain in play.
Trend score: 35 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. The longer-term trend is still negative, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
Price is stretched well above its recent average (about 2.2 ATR). Upside extension is elevated, and chasing strength here carries a higher pullback risk.
A key downside risk boundary is near 14.87. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-08-03, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
[2026-08-07] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
The model sees a credible bullish edge, with 63.2% upside probability, strong signal alignment, and reward/risk that remains meaningfully favorable.
Up probability is 63.2%, with predictability at 64% and signal agreement at 100%. Reversal risk is 12%, while reward/risk stands at 0.32. That suggests the directional case is supported by broad confirmation and still retains usable quality. At the same time, recent price behavior has shown failed reversal memory.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 13 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-08-10. The current price is 21.60, 10.07% above the estimated average cost of 19.62. An estimated 69.5% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 29.7% is above it. The peak-density price is 16.66. The largest concentrated cost region is 21.11 to 22.31 and contains 42.6% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 21.11 to 22.31 cost region. The nearest region below the current price is 21.05 to 21.07.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for PGY
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is relatively low, indicating limited pressure from short positions. (Historical percentile: 23%)
Structure Analysis
PGY Short positioning is starting to look crowded. Current days to cover is 3.6 trading days, meaning short positions would unwind somewhat slower than average. Short covering could add extra momentum to price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 38/100, DTC percentile 71%) despite a strong upward price move (20D return 18.3%) with short positioning continuing to expand and liquidity contracting meaningfully (volume -22%).
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
In the latest reporting period, short interest continues to increase. Average trading volume is weakening, indicating contracting liquidity. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. Rising short pressure is occurring while liquidity is deteriorating. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 2× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-07-15 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.