PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NYSE • Sector: Consumer Cyclical • Industry: Residential Construction
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Profile & Business Summary
PulteGroup, Inc., through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the homebuilding business in the United States. It acquires and develops land primarily for residential purposes; and constructs housing on such land. The company also offers various home designs, including single-family detached, townhomes, condominiums, and duplexes under the Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta Homes, American West, and John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods brand names. As of December 31, 2021, it controlled 228,296 lots, of which 109,078 were owned and 119,218 were under land option agreements. In addition, the company arranges financing through the origination of mortgage loans primarily for homebuyers; sells the servicing rights for the originated loans; and provides title insurance policies, and examination and closing services to homebuyers. PulteGroup, Inc. was formerly known as Pulte Homes, Inc. and changed its name to PulteGroup, Inc. in March 2010. The company was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Key Information
| Ticker | PHM |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NYSE |
| Official Site | https://www.pultegroup.com |
Market Trend Overview for PHM
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-08-17 (ET)
As of 2026-08-17, PHM is moving sideways with low volatility. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
PHM last closed at 128.49. The price is about 0.0 ATR above its recent average price (128.43), and the market is currently in a sideways market with low volatility. Price at 128.49 is moving between light support near 126.19 and light resistance near 128.56. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
Price is moving in a tight range. This often leads to a stronger move once the range breaks, increasing one-sided risk.
Trend score: 40 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways phase with tightening price movement. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
A key downside risk boundary is near 118.33. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-07-27, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
[2026-08-07] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.
The model does not deploy this setup because predictability is still too low, internal signals are not aligned strongly enough, and price is still close to a gamma transition zone. Predictability is 32%, agreement is 37%, and reversal risk is 24%.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 18 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-08-17. The current price is 128.49, 0.97% below the estimated average cost of 129.75. An estimated 22.0% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 77.5% is above it. The peak-density price is 129.30. The largest concentrated cost region is 128.43 to 130.68 and contains 46.6% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 128.43 to 130.68 cost region. The nearest region below the current price is 127.78 to 127.83. The nearest region above the current price is 131.78 to 131.88.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for PHM
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is well above normal levels, increasing the risk of forced covering and sudden price moves. (Historical percentile: 78%)
Structure Analysis
PHM Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 4.2 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 19/100, DTC percentile 57%) with short positioning continuing to expand.
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
In the latest reporting period, short interest continues to increase. Price action is compressing (range is tightening), which can make breaks more sensitive. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-07-31 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.