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PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Corporate Logo

PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Stock Price & Analysis

Market: NYSE • Sector: Consumer Cyclical • Industry: Residential Construction

PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Profile & Business Summary

PulteGroup, Inc., through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the homebuilding business in the United States. It acquires and develops land primarily for residential purposes; and constructs housing on such land. The company also offers various home designs, including single-family detached, townhomes, condominiums, and duplexes under the Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta Homes, American West, and John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods brand names. As of December 31, 2021, it controlled 228,296 lots, of which 109,078 were owned and 119,218 were under land option agreements. In addition, the company arranges financing through the origination of mortgage loans primarily for homebuyers; sells the servicing rights for the originated loans; and provides title insurance policies, and examination and closing services to homebuyers. PulteGroup, Inc. was formerly known as Pulte Homes, Inc. and changed its name to PulteGroup, Inc. in March 2010. The company was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Key Information

Ticker PHM
Exchange NYSE
Official Site https://www.pultegroup.com
CIK Number 0000822416
View SEC Filings

Market Trend Overview for PHM

One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.

Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)

Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-08-17 (ET)

As of 2026-08-17, PHM is moving sideways with low volatility. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.

PHM last closed at 128.49. The price is about 0.0 ATR above its recent average price (128.43), and the market is currently in a sideways market with low volatility. Price at 128.49 is moving between light support near 126.19 and light resistance near 128.56. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options

Price is moving in a tight range. This often leads to a stronger move once the range breaks, increasing one-sided risk.

Trend Alignment Summary

Trend score: 40 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways phase with tightening price movement. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.

Key Risk Level

A key downside risk boundary is near 118.33. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.

Recent Trend Signal

A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-07-27, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.

Unusual Price Movement

[2026-08-07] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.

Recent Price Behavior

Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.

Overnight Positioning

There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.

Next-day directional probability forecast Last updated: 2026-08-17 (ET)
Next-session outlook for 2026-08-18 (ET)
No clear next-day edge

What the model sees

The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.


Why the model says this

The model does not deploy this setup because predictability is still too low, internal signals are not aligned strongly enough, and price is still close to a gamma transition zone. Predictability is 32%, agreement is 37%, and reversal risk is 24%.

NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history

Recent Cost Distribution Last updated: 2026-08-17 (ET)

This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 18 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-08-17. The current price is 128.49, 0.97% below the estimated average cost of 129.75. An estimated 22.0% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 77.5% is above it. The peak-density price is 129.30. The largest concentrated cost region is 128.43 to 130.68 and contains 46.6% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 128.43 to 130.68 cost region. The nearest region below the current price is 127.78 to 127.83. The nearest region above the current price is 131.78 to 131.88.

Short Interest & Covering Risk for PHM

This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.

Squeeze Score 0.66

Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.

Key Market Risk Indicators
Short Crowding (Short Interest / Float) 4.93%
Short Positions Trend Increasing
Liquidity Trend (Average Daily Volume) 18.25%
20-Day Return 4.31%
Price vs 20-Day High Below Recent Highs

Short Exposure Percentile

Short interest is well above normal levels, increasing the risk of forced covering and sudden price moves. (Historical percentile: 78%)

Structure Analysis

PHM Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 4.2 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 19/100, DTC percentile 57%) with short positioning continuing to expand.

Risk Summary

No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.

Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?

In the latest reporting period, short interest continues to increase. Price action is compressing (range is tightening), which can make breaks more sensitive. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.


Note: Short interest data is reported every two weeks by FINRA. The most recent snapshot is 2026-07-31 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.

Analytical Modules