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Pony AI Inc. American Depositary Shares (PONY) Stock Price & Analysis

Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Industrials • Industry: Rental & Leasing Services

Pony AI Inc. American Depositary Shares (PONY) Profile & Business Summary

Pony AI Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the autonomous mobility in the People's Republic of China and the United States. The company provides robotruck services, such as transportation services to the logistics platforms. It also offers robotaxi services, including a suite of AV engineering solutions comprising AV software deployment and maintenance, vehicle integration and engineering, and road testing; and fare-charging robotaxi services. In addition, the company offers personally-owned vehicle intelligent solutions, including intelligent driving software solutions, proprietary vehicle domain controller products, and data analytics tools; vehicle integration services, software development, and licensing services; and vehicle-to-everything (V2X) products and services to enhance road safety. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is based in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China.

Key Information

Ticker PONY
Exchange NASDAQ
Official Site https://www.pony.ai
CIK Number 0001969302
View SEC Filings

Market Trend Overview for PONY

One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.

Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)

Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-03-25 (ET)

As of 2026-03-25, PONY is showing signs of slowing down. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.

PONY last closed at 11.39. The price is about 0.3 ATR below its recent average price (11.72), and the market is currently in a trend that may be losing strength. Price at 11.39 is near minor support around 10.20. Momentum may slow, while minor resistance sits near 13.56. View Support & Resistance from Options

Short-term weakness is unfolding within a broader uptrend, suggesting a pullback rather than a full trend reversal.

Trend Alignment Summary

Trend score: 55 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a late-stage trend that may be losing strength. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.

Key Risk Level

There is no clear risk level acting as a key boundary right now.

Recent Trend Signal

On 2026-01-20, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.

Unusual Price Movement

[2026-02-19] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.

Recent Price Behavior

Recent price action shows orderly upward progression with no major deterioration in bar-level efficiency. Structural conditions remain broadly constructive.

Overnight Positioning

There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.

Next-day directional probability forecast Last updated: 2026-03-25 (ET)
Next-session outlook for 2026-03-26 (ET)
No clear next-day edge

What the model sees

The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.


Why the model says this

The model does not deploy this setup because predictability is still too low and internal signals are not aligned strongly enough. Predictability is 24%, agreement is 31%, and reversal risk is 26%.

NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history

Recent Cost Distribution Last updated: 2026-03-25 (ET)

This reading is based on the last 20 trading days of 15-minute price, volume, and VWAP data. Price is modestly below the recent estimated cost basis of 11.59, so the recent structure is still leaning somewhat under pressure. Price is above the main cost band (10.91 to 11.28), which keeps the recent structure constructive, although extension risk starts to matter more from here. The lower down support area sits around 10.31 to 10.43. It looks more like a first buffer than a major floor. Recent positioning looks fairly balanced, with 58% in profit and 42% under water. Recent trading is fairly concentrated, so the nearby heavy zones may matter more than usual. From a trading point of view, the main question is whether pullbacks remain controlled before price falls back into the lower support zone.

Short Interest & Covering Risk for PONY

This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.

Squeeze Score 0.62

Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.

Key Market Risk Indicators
Short Crowding (Short Interest / Float) 6.52%
Short Positions Trend Not Increasing
Liquidity Trend (Average Daily Volume) -33.29%
20-Day Return -16.06%
Price vs 20-Day High Below Recent Highs

Short Exposure Percentile

Short interest is within its typical range, with no clear imbalance between buyers and sellers. (Historical percentile: 50%)

Structure Analysis

PONY Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 7.7 trading days, meaning short positions would unwind somewhat slower than average. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. Price is already trending lower (20D return -16.1%). The current configuration reflects active downside pressure rather than latent structural fragility.

Risk Summary

No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.

Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?

Days-to-Cover is elevated versus its own history, but absolute short interest remains moderate. Average trading volume is weakening, indicating contracting liquidity. Price action is compressing (range is tightening), which can make breaks more sensitive. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 2× larger than usual.


Note: Short interest data is reported every two weeks by FINRA. The most recent snapshot is 2026-02-27 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.

Analytical Modules