Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Consumer Cyclical • Industry: Restaurants
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Profile & Business Summary
Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee worldwide. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee and tea beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, single serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Evolution Fresh, Ethos, Starbucks Reserve, and Princi brands. As of October 3, 2021, it operated 16,826 company-operated and licensed stores in North America; and 17,007 company-operated and licensed stores internationally. The company was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
Key Information
| Ticker | SBUX |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NASDAQ |
| Official Site | https://www.starbucks.com |
Market Trend Overview for SBUX
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-10-01 (ET)
As of 2026-10-01, SBUX is moving sideways without a clear direction. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
SBUX last closed at 94.88. The price is about 0.1 ATR below its recent average price (95.09), and the market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. Price at 94.88 is moving between minor support near 92.76 and minor resistance near 96.20. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
The market is moving sideways, with no clear direction. Both upside and downside risks remain in play.
Trend score: 35 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
There is no clear key risk boundary right now.
On 2026-09-09, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.
[2026-10-01] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.Bearish signal near resistance (0.63 ATR away). Reversal risk is higher. Pattern is less clear, so strength is reduced.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.
The model does not deploy this setup because predictability is still too low, internal signals are not aligned strongly enough, and price is still close to a gamma transition zone. Predictability is 20%, agreement is 47%, and reversal risk is 26%.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 50 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-10-01. The current price is 94.88, 7.37% below the estimated average cost of 102.43. An estimated 10.5% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 89.1% is above it. The peak-density price is 107.30. The largest concentrated cost region is 104.38 to 108.13 and contains 48.4% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 94.83 to 95.83 cost region. The nearest region below the current price is 94.03 to 94.48. The nearest region above the current price is 103.08 to 103.33.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for SBUX
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is relatively low, indicating limited pressure from short positions. (Historical percentile: 36%)
Structure Analysis
SBUX Short positioning is starting to look crowded. Current days to cover is 7.2 trading days, meaning short positions would unwind more slowly than usual. Short covering could add extra momentum to price moves. Price is already trending lower (20D return -11.1%). The current configuration reflects active downside pressure rather than latent structural fragility.
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Days-to-Cover is elevated versus its own history, but absolute short interest remains moderate. Price action is compressing (range is tightening), which can make breaks more sensitive. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 3× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-09-15 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.