Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Consumer Cyclical • Industry: Restaurants
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Profile & Business Summary
Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee worldwide. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee and tea beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, single serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Evolution Fresh, Ethos, Starbucks Reserve, and Princi brands. As of October 3, 2021, it operated 16,826 company-operated and licensed stores in North America; and 17,007 company-operated and licensed stores internationally. The company was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
Key Information
| Ticker | SBUX |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NASDAQ |
| Official Site | https://www.starbucks.com |
Market Trend Overview for SBUX
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-03-25 (ET)
As of 2026-03-25, SBUX is showing signs of slowing down. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
SBUX last closed at 92.70. The price is about 1.5 ATR below its recent average price (95.95), and the market is currently in a trend that may be losing strength. Price at 92.70 is near light support around 91.59. Momentum may slow, while minor resistance sits near 97.78. View Support & Resistance from Options
The broader uptrend is still intact, but price has moved far from its recent average, increasing the risk of a pullback.
Trend score: 55 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a late-stage trend that may be losing strength. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
A key downside level is near 90.68. If price falls below this area, the current upward trend would likely weaken or break.
On 2026-03-20, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.
[2026-03-24] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This reading is based on the last 20 trading days of 15-minute price, volume, and VWAP data. Price is trading 3.8% below the recent estimated cost basis of 96.39, so the recent structure is still leaning under pressure. Price is in the lower half of the main cost band (91.76 to 95.34), so price support and pullback behavior matter more than immediate upside follow-through. The higher up selling area sits around 93.74 to 94.80, and overhead supply looks fairly concentrated there. There is also a nearby thin-trading zone below between 91.53 and 91.84, so downside can speed up if support fails and price drops into that area. About 85% of recent positioning remains under water, which usually makes rallies harder to sustain. From a trading point of view, the main question is whether rebounds remain healthy enough to reach and absorb the higher overhead supply zone.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for SBUX
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is relatively low, indicating limited pressure from short positions. (Historical percentile: 7%)
Structure Analysis
SBUX Short positioning is starting to look crowded. Current days to cover is 6.4 trading days, meaning short positions would unwind more slowly than usual. Short covering could add extra momentum to price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 18/100, DTC percentile 99%) and liquidity contracting meaningfully (volume -27%). Positioning is historically elevated, although price and liquidity conditions do not yet confirm structural fragility. Short positioning is at extreme historical levels.
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Days-to-Cover is elevated versus its own history, but absolute short interest remains moderate. Average trading volume is weakening, indicating contracting liquidity. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 3× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-02-27 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.