Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Technology • Industry: Computer Hardware
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) Profile & Business Summary
Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and manufactures high performance server and storage solutions based on modular and open architecture in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. Its solutions range from complete server, storage systems, modular blade servers, blades, workstations, full racks, networking devices, server sub-systems, server management software, and security software. The company provides application-optimized server solutions, rackmount and blade servers, storage, and subsystems and accessories; and server software management solutions, such as Server Management Suite, including Supermicro Server Manager, Supermicro Power Management software, Supermicro Update Manager, SuperCloud Composer, and SuperDoctor 5. In addition, it offers server subsystems and accessories comprising server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories. Further, the company provides server and storage system integration, configuration, and software upgrade and update services; and technical documentation services, as well as identifies service requirements, creates and executes project plans, and conducts verification testing and technical documentation, and training services. Additionally, it offers help desk and on-site product support services for its server and storage systems; and customer support services, including ongoing maintenance and technical support for its products. The company provides its products to enterprise data centers, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and 5G and edge computing markets. It sells its products through direct and indirect sales force, distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and original equipment manufacturers. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Key Information
| Ticker | SMCI |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NASDAQ |
| Official Site | https://www.supermicro.com |
Market Trend Overview for SMCI
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-07-17 (ET)
As of 2026-07-17, SMCI is showing signs of slowing down. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
SMCI last closed at 24.18. The price is about 2.8 ATR below its recent average price (29.32), and the market is currently in a trend that may be losing strength. Price at 24.18 is near minor support around 20.71. Momentum may slow, while minor resistance sits near 29.12. View Support & Resistance from Options
Short-term weakness is unfolding within a broader uptrend, suggesting a pullback rather than a full trend reversal.
Trend score: 55 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a late-stage trend that may be losing strength. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
Price is stretched well below its recent average (about 2.8 ATR). Downside extension is elevated, and chasing weakness here carries a higher rebound risk.
There is no clear key risk boundary right now.
On 2026-06-10, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.
[2026-07-15] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent price action continues to trend lower in a relatively orderly manner, with no clear signs of structural stabilization yet emerging.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
The model still sees a directional lean, but the edge is not thick enough after adjusting for reward/risk.
The model does not deploy this setup because the directional lean exists, but the edge is still not thick enough after risk adjustment, reward/risk remains too thin at -0.08 after adjustment, the setup already looks stretched, price is still close to a gamma transition zone, recent price behavior has shown failed reversal memory, and there is meaningful next-session pullback or digestion risk. Predictability is 43%, agreement is 93%, and reversal risk is 42%.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This reading is based on the last 20 trading days of 15-minute price, volume, and VWAP data. Price is trading 14.7% below the recent estimated cost basis of 28.35, so the recent structure is still leaning under pressure. Price is below the main cost band (27.24 to 28.95), and roughly 97% of recent positioning remains under water. That means rebounds can still run into supply from trapped holders. The broader structure still looks stretched on the weak side, so recovery attempts may need more proof before improving the tone. The nearby selling area sits around 24.26 to 24.45, so rebounds may begin to slow as price pushes into that zone. The main cost band is fairly wide relative to recent ATR, so this structure may behave less cleanly than a tighter setup. From a trading point of view, this setup remains tougher until price can reclaim the lower edge of the main cost band near 27.24.