VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Financial Services • Industry: Asset Management
VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) Profile & Business Summary
The fund normally invests at least 80% of its total assets in securities that comprise the fund's benchmark index. The index includes common stocks and depositary receipts of U.S. exchange-listed companies in the semiconductor industry. Such companies may include medium-capitalization companies and foreign companies that are listed on a U.S. exchange. The fund is non-diversified.
Key Information
Market Trend Overview for SMH
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-07-13 (ET)
As of 2026-07-13, SMH is showing signs of slowing down. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
SMH last closed at 585.62. The price is about 2.1 ATR below its recent average price (613.16), and the market is currently in a trend that may be losing strength. Price at 585.62 is near light support around 566.83. Momentum may slow, while light resistance sits near 612.30. View Support & Resistance from Options
The broader uptrend is still intact, but price has moved far from its recent average, increasing the risk of a pullback.
Trend score: 55 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a late-stage trend that may be losing strength. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
Price is stretched well below its recent average (about 2.1 ATR). Downside extension is elevated, and chasing weakness here carries a higher rebound risk.
A key downside risk boundary is near 517.47. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.
On 2026-07-02, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.
[2026-07-10] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent price movement appears increasingly driven by low-effort advances. Such hollow progression often reflects reduced participation and lower reliability of continuation.
Some late-day positioning was observed, but it lacked strong overnight commitment.
The model still sees a directional lean, but the edge is not thick enough after adjusting for reward/risk.
The model does not deploy this setup because the directional lean exists, but the edge is still not thick enough after risk adjustment and reward/risk remains too thin at -0.12 after adjustment. Predictability is 52%, agreement is 88%, and reversal risk is 16%.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This reading is based on the last 20 trading days of 15-minute price, volume, and VWAP data. Price is trading 4.3% below the recent estimated cost basis of 611.71, so the recent structure is still leaning under pressure. Price is below the main cost band (605.34 to 628.90), and roughly 85% of recent positioning remains under water. That means rebounds can still run into supply from trapped holders. The broader structure still looks stretched on the weak side, so recovery attempts may need more proof before improving the tone. The lower down support area sits around 575.88 to 577.35. The higher up selling area sits around 604.60 to 636.27, so rebounds may begin to slow as price pushes into that zone. The main cost band is fairly wide relative to recent ATR, so this structure may behave less cleanly than a tighter setup. From a trading point of view, this setup remains tougher until price can reclaim the lower edge of the main cost band near 605.34.