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Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) Stock Price & Analysis

Market: NYSE • Sector: Consumer Cyclical • Industry: Packaging & Containers

Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) Profile & Business Summary

Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in Ireland and internationally. The company produces containerboard that it converts into corrugated containers or sells to third parties, as well as produces other types of paper, such as consumer packaging board, sack paper, graphic paper, solid board and graphic board, and other paper-based packaging products, such as consumer packaging, solid board packaging, paper sacks, and other packaging products, including bag-in-box. It also produces linerboard and corrugated medium, paperboard, and non-packaging grades of paper, as well as converted products, such as folding cartons and corrugated boxes, and other products; recycled paper-based packaging products; and packaging machinery. The company primarily serves food and beverage, e-commerce, retail, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice markets. Smurfit Westrock Plc was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

Key Information

Ticker SW
Exchange NYSE
Official Site https://www.smurfitwestrock.com
CIK Number 0002005951
View SEC Filings

Market Trend Overview for SW

One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.

Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)

Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-08-17 (ET)

As of 2026-08-17, SW is moving sideways without a clear direction. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.

SW last closed at 47.81. The price is about 0.4 ATR above its recent average price (47.08), and the market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. Price at 47.81 is moving between minor support near 45.29 and light resistance near 47.86. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options

The market is moving sideways, with no clear direction. Both upside and downside risks remain in play.

Trend Alignment Summary

Trend score: 35 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.

Key Risk Level

A key downside risk boundary is near 42.39. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.

Recent Trend Signal

A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-07-24, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.

Unusual Price Movement

[2026-08-07] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.

Recent Price Behavior

Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.

Overnight Positioning

Some late-day positioning was observed, but it lacked strong overnight commitment.

Next-day directional probability forecast Last updated: 2026-08-17 (ET)
Next-session outlook for 2026-08-18 (ET)
No clear next-day edge

What the model sees

The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.


Why the model says this

The model does not deploy this setup because predictability is still too low and internal signals are not aligned strongly enough. Predictability is 32%, agreement is 6%, and reversal risk is 11%.

NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history

Recent Cost Distribution Last updated: 2026-08-17 (ET)

This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 18 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-08-17. The current price is 47.81, 0.78% below the estimated average cost of 48.19. An estimated 35.9% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 63.8% is above it. The peak-density price is 48.52. The largest concentrated cost region is 47.83 to 48.71 and contains 27.8% of the estimated distribution. The nearest region below the current price is 47.09 to 47.73. The nearest region above the current price is 47.83 to 48.71.

Short Interest & Covering Risk for SW

This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.

Squeeze Score 0.50

Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.

Key Market Risk Indicators
Short Crowding (Short Interest / Float) 4.83%
Short Positions Trend Not Increasing
Liquidity Trend (Average Daily Volume) 14.72%
20-Day Return 10.83%
Price vs 20-Day High Below Recent Highs

Short Exposure Percentile

Short interest is above its usual range, suggesting rising pressure on short positions, though not yet extreme. (Historical percentile: 67%)

Structure Analysis

SW Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 4.3 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 6/100, DTC percentile 36%) while price maintains a mild upward bias (20D return 10.8%).

Risk Summary

No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.

Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?

Price action is compressing (range is tightening), which can make breaks more sensitive. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.


Note: Short interest data is reported every two weeks by FINRA. The most recent snapshot is 2026-07-31 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.

Analytical Modules