iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Financial Services • Industry: Asset Management - Bonds
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Profile & Business Summary
The fund will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of the underlying index, and it will invest at least 90% of its assets in U.S. Treasury securities that the advisor believes will help the fund track the underlying index. The underlying index measures the performance of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have a remaining maturity greater than or equal to twenty years.
Key Information
Market Trend Overview for TLT
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-10-13 (ET)
As of 2026-10-13, TLT is moving sideways without a clear direction. Over the longer term, the trend remains bearish.
TLT last closed at 78.37. The price is about 1.1 ATR above its recent average price (77.65), and the market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. Price at 78.37 is moving between minor support near 76.43 and minor resistance near 79.47. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
The market is moving sideways, with no clear direction. Both upside and downside risks remain in play.
Trend score: 35 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. The longer-term trend is still negative, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
There is no clear key risk boundary right now.
On 2026-07-01, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.
[2026-10-12] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent price action shows orderly upward progression with no major deterioration in bar-level efficiency. Structural conditions remain broadly constructive.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.
The model does not issue an actionable directional forecast. Predictability is 43%, agreement is 91%, and reversal risk is 14%.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 58 trading days, with relative-volume decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-10-13. The current price is 78.37, 0.31% above the estimated average cost of 78.13. An estimated 69.5% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 16.7% is above it. The peak-density price is 77.96. The largest concentrated cost region is 78.25 to 78.43 and contains 39.4% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 78.25 to 78.43 cost region. The nearest region below the current price is 77.93 to 77.99.