iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Financial Services • Industry: Asset Management - Bonds
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Profile & Business Summary
The fund will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of the underlying index, and it will invest at least 90% of its assets in U.S. Treasury securities that the advisor believes will help the fund track the underlying index. The underlying index measures the performance of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have a remaining maturity greater than or equal to twenty years.
Key Information
Market Trend Overview for TLT
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-07-14 (ET)
As of 2026-07-14, TLT is showing signs of slowing down. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
TLT last closed at 84.08. The price is about 0.5 ATR below its recent average price (84.49), and the market is currently in a trend that may be losing strength. Price at 84.08 is near minor support around 84.06. Momentum may slow, while minor resistance sits near 85.38. View Support & Resistance from Options
Short-term weakness is unfolding within a broader uptrend, suggesting a pullback rather than a full trend reversal.
Trend score: 55 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a late-stage trend that may be losing strength. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
There is no clear key risk boundary right now.
On 2026-07-01, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.
[2026-07-09] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
Closing activity showed limited conviction and did not suggest strong overnight positioning.
The model sees a bearish edge, but still treats it as a selective downside setup rather than an aggressive downside call.
Up probability is only 43.8%, with predictability at 49% and agreement at 86%. Reversal risk is 15%. That suggests downside pressure is present, while the setup still remains selective rather than extreme. At the same time, recent price behavior has shown failed reversal memory.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This reading is based on the last 20 trading days of 15-minute price, volume, and VWAP data. Price is modestly below the recent estimated cost basis of 85.46, so the recent structure is still leaning somewhat under pressure. Price is in the lower half of the main cost band (84.06 to 84.60), so price support and pullback behavior matter more than immediate upside follow-through. The higher up selling area sits around 84.76 to 84.78, so rebounds may begin to slow as price pushes into that zone. About 95% of recent positioning remains under water, which usually makes rallies harder to sustain. The main cost band is fairly wide relative to recent ATR, so this structure may behave less cleanly than a tighter setup. From a trading point of view, the main question is whether rebounds remain healthy enough to reach and absorb the higher overhead supply zone.