Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NYSE • Sector: Energy • Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) Profile & Business Summary
Texas Pacific Land Corporation engages in the land and resource management, and water services and operations businesses. The company's Land and Resource Management segment manages approximately 880,000 acres of land. This segment also holds own a 1/128th nonparticipating perpetual oil and gas royalty interest (NPRI) under approximately 85,000 acres of land; a 1/16th NPRI under approximately 371,000 acres of land; and approximately 4,000 additional net royalty acres located in the western part of Texas. In addition, this segment engages in easements and commercial leases activities, such as oil, gas and related hydrocarbons, power line and utility easements, and subsurface wellbore easements. Further, this segment leases its land for processing, storage, and compression facilities and roads; and is involved in sale of materials, such as caliche. Its Water Services and Operations segment provides full-service water offerings, including water sourcing, produced-water gathering/treatment, infrastructure development, disposal solutions, water tracking, analytics, and well testing services to operators in the Permian Basin. This segment also holds royalties for water sourced from its land. Texas Pacific Land Corporation was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Key Information
| Ticker | TPL |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NYSE |
| Official Site | https://www.texaspacific.com |
Market Trend Overview for TPL
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-10-13 (ET)
As of 2026-10-13, TPL is in a strong upward move. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
TPL last closed at 369.13. The price is about 0.6 ATR above its recent average price (357.16), and the market is currently in a strong upward move. Price at 369.13 is holding above light support near 358.01. If price continues higher, it may face light resistance around 369.46. View Support & Resistance from Options
Short-term weakness is unfolding within a broader uptrend, suggesting a pullback rather than a full trend reversal.
Trend score: 95 out of 100. Overall alignment is strong. The market is currently in a strong and established uptrend. Trend signals are well aligned across timeframes, suggesting a stable and consistent trend.
There is no clear key risk boundary right now.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-10-12, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
[2026-09-28] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent price action shows orderly upward progression with no major deterioration in bar-level efficiency. Structural conditions remain broadly constructive.
Buying pressure built into the close, but price action was choppy and lacked clean follow-through.
The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.
The model does not deploy this setup because internal signals are not aligned strongly enough. Predictability is 34%, agreement is 45%, and reversal risk is 14%.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 58 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-10-13. The current price is 369.13, 1.58% above the estimated average cost of 363.41. An estimated 67.3% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 30.8% is above it. The peak-density price is 365.50. The largest concentrated cost region is 353.75 to 374.25 and contains 47.7% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 353.75 to 374.25 cost region. The nearest region below the current price is 344.25 to 352.75. The nearest region above the current price is 381.75 to 382.75.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for TPL
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is at a very high historical level. If price moves against shorts, reactions could be sharp and volatile. (Historical percentile: 92%)
Structure Analysis
TPL Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 8.9 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 0/100, DTC percentile 33%) as price consolidates near recent highs (20D return -0.7%).
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-09-30 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.