Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Consumer Cyclical • Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Profile & Business Summary
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Automotive, and Energy Generation and Storage. The Automotive segment offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty after-sales vehicle, used vehicles, retail merchandise, and vehicle insurance services. This segment also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; purchase financing and leasing services; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. The Energy Generation and Storage segment engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners; and provision of service and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty, as well as various financing options to its solar customers. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Key Information
| Ticker | TSLA |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NASDAQ |
| Official Site | https://www.tesla.com |
Market Trend Overview for TSLA
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-09-17 (ET)
As of 2026-09-17, TSLA is moving sideways with low volatility. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
TSLA last closed at 366.20. The price is about 1.1 ATR above its recent average price (347.05), and the market is currently in a sideways market with low volatility. Price at 366.20 is moving between minor support near 354.05 and minor resistance near 366.50. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
Price is moving in a tight range. This often leads to a stronger move once the range breaks, increasing one-sided risk.
Trend score: 40 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways phase with tightening price movement. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
A key downside risk boundary is near 329.32. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-08-10, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
[2026-08-10] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
Some late-day positioning was observed, but it lacked strong overnight commitment.
The model sees a bullish edge, with 60.1% upside probability and a still-actionable balance between confirmation and reversal risk.
Up probability is 60.1%, with predictability at 48% and signal agreement at 93%. Reversal risk is 25%, while reward/risk stands at 0.18. That suggests the directional case is supported by broad confirmation and still retains usable quality. At the same time, price is still close to a gamma transition zone.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 40 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-09-17. The current price is 366.20, 5.42% above the estimated average cost of 347.37. An estimated 90.7% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 8.9% is above it. The peak-density price is 354.00. The largest concentrated cost region is 350.30 to 359.50 and contains 27.5% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 362.50 to 367.10 cost region. The nearest region below the current price is 360.30 to 361.10. The nearest region above the current price is 367.50 to 368.30.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for TSLA
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is relatively low, indicating limited pressure from short positions. (Historical percentile: 17%)
Structure Analysis
TSLA Short positioning is starting to look crowded. Current days to cover is 2.0 trading days, meaning short positions would unwind somewhat slower than average. Short covering could add extra momentum to price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 19/100, DTC percentile 94%) with short positioning continuing to expand and liquidity softening modestly (volume -18%). Positioning is historically elevated, although price and liquidity conditions do not yet confirm structural fragility.
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Days-to-Cover is elevated versus its own history, but absolute short interest remains moderate. In the latest reporting period, short interest continues to increase. Price action is compressing (range is tightening), which can make breaks more sensitive. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 2× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-08-31 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.