Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NYSE • Sector: Technology • Industry: Semiconductors
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Profile & Business Summary
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides a range of wafer fabrication processes, including processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also offers customer and engineering support services; manufactures masks; and invests in technology start-up companies; researches, designs, develops, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells color filters; and provides investment services. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
Key Information
| Ticker | TSM |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NYSE |
| Official Site | https://www.tsmc.com |
Market Trend Overview for TSM
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-11-06 (ET)
As of 2026-11-06, TSM is showing signs of slowing down. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
TSM last closed at 375.44. The price is about 2.1 ATR below its recent average price (415.01), and the market is currently in a trend that may be losing strength. Price at 375.44 is near minor support around 372.72. Momentum may slow, while minor resistance sits near 420.35. View Support & Resistance from Options
Short-term weakness is unfolding within a broader uptrend, suggesting a pullback rather than a full trend reversal.
Trend score: 55 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a late-stage trend that may be losing strength. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
Price is stretched well below its recent average (about 2.1 ATR). Downside extension is elevated, and chasing weakness here carries a higher rebound risk.
There is no clear key risk boundary right now.
On 2026-10-12, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.
[2026-10-27] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.
The model does not deploy this setup because predictability is still too low, internal signals are not aligned strongly enough, recent price behavior has shown failed reversal memory, there is meaningful next-session pullback or digestion risk, and the setup already looks stretched. Predictability is 11%, agreement is 32%, and reversal risk is 37%.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 48 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-09-01 to 2026-11-06. The current price is 375.44, 10.58% below the estimated average cost of 419.86. An estimated 11.3% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 87.5% is above it. The peak-density price is 413.00. The largest concentrated cost region is 409.25 to 422.25 and contains 29.8% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 374.25 to 377.25 cost region. The nearest region below the current price is 369.25 to 370.25. The nearest region above the current price is 394.25 to 395.25.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for TSM
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is above its usual range, suggesting rising pressure on short positions, though not yet extreme. (Historical percentile: 64%)
Structure Analysis
TSM Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 2.6 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. Price is already trending lower (20D return -17.2%). The current configuration reflects active downside pressure rather than latent structural fragility.
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Days-to-Cover is elevated versus its own history, but absolute short interest remains moderate. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-10-15 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.