Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NYSE • Sector: Technology • Industry: Semiconductors
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Profile & Business Summary
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides a range of wafer fabrication processes, including processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also offers customer and engineering support services; manufactures masks; and invests in technology start-up companies; researches, designs, develops, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells color filters; and provides investment services. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
Key Information
| Ticker | TSM |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NYSE |
| Official Site | https://www.tsmc.com |
Market Trend Overview for TSM
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-09-24 (ET)
As of 2026-09-24, TSM is in a strong upward move. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
TSM last closed at 451.15. The price is about 1.3 ATR above its recent average price (429.25), and the market is currently in a strong upward move. Price at 451.15 is holding above minor support near 428.11. If price continues higher, it may face minor resistance around 452.88. View Support & Resistance from Options
Short-term and long-term trends are aligned, and momentum remains healthy, supporting further upside.
Trend score: 95 out of 100. Overall alignment is strong. The market is currently in a strong and established uptrend. Trend signals are well aligned across timeframes, suggesting a stable and consistent trend.
A key downside risk boundary is near 409.65. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-09-18, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
[2026-09-24] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.Bearish signal near resistance (0.16 ATR away). Reversal risk is higher. Pattern is less clear, so strength is reduced.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
Some late-day positioning was observed, but it lacked strong overnight commitment.
The model sees a credible bullish edge, with 67.6% upside probability, strong signal alignment, and reward/risk that remains meaningfully favorable.
Up probability is 67.6%, with predictability at 54% and signal agreement at 93%. Reversal risk is 16%, while reward/risk stands at 0.35. That suggests the directional case is supported by broad confirmation and still retains usable quality. At the same time, recent price behavior has shown failed reversal memory.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 45 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-09-24. The current price is 451.15, 7.93% above the estimated average cost of 417.99. An estimated 99.4% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 0.5% is above it. The peak-density price is 412.60. The largest concentrated cost region is 411.50 to 423.70 and contains 45.3% of the estimated distribution. The nearest region below the current price is 435.10 to 435.70.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for TSM
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is relatively low, indicating limited pressure from short positions. (Historical percentile: 4%)
Structure Analysis
TSM Short positioning is starting to look crowded. Current days to cover is 3.1 trading days, meaning short positions would unwind somewhat slower than average. Short covering could add extra momentum to price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 18/100, DTC percentile 99%) while price maintains a mild upward bias (20D return 8.0%) and liquidity contracting meaningfully (volume -33%). Positioning is historically elevated, although price and liquidity conditions do not yet confirm structural fragility. Short positioning is at extreme historical levels.
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Days-to-Cover is elevated versus its own history, but absolute short interest remains moderate. Average trading volume is weakening, indicating contracting liquidity. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 2× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-08-31 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.