Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Consumer Cyclical • Industry: Specialty Retail
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Profile & Business Summary
Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a retailer of beauty products in the United States. The company's stores offer cosmetics, fragrances, skincare and haircare products, bath and body products, and salon styling tools; professional hair products; salon services, including hair, skin, makeup, and brow services; and nail services. It also provides its private label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection branded cosmetics, skincare, and bath products, as well as Ulta Beauty branded products; and the Ulta Beauty branded gifts. As of March 10, 2022, the company operated 1,308 retail stores across 50 states. It also distributes its products through its website ulta.com; and mobile applications. The company was formerly known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. and changed its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Ulta Beauty, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.
Key Information
| Ticker | ULTA |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NASDAQ |
| Official Site | https://www.ulta.com |
Market Trend Overview for ULTA
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-10-13 (ET)
As of 2026-10-13, ULTA is in a strong upward move. Over the longer term, the trend remains bearish.
ULTA last closed at 579.00. The price is about 1.8 ATR above its recent average price (551.87), and the market is currently in a strong upward move. Price at 579.00 is holding above minor support near 534.17. If price continues higher, it may face minor resistance around 601.90. View Support & Resistance from Options
Short-term strength is developing against a weaker long-term trend, which increases the risk of downside reversals.
Trend score: 70 out of 100. Overall alignment is moderate. The market is currently in a strong and established uptrend. Some trend alignment is present, but the structure is still forming.
A key downside risk boundary is near 512.35. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-09-01, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
[2026-10-06] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
The model sees a bullish edge, with 61.7% upside probability and a still-actionable balance between confirmation and reversal risk.
Up probability is 61.7%, with predictability at 49% and signal agreement at 93%. Reversal risk is 17%, while reward/risk stands at 0.22. That suggests the directional case is supported by broad confirmation and still retains usable quality. At the same time, recent price behavior has shown failed reversal memory.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 58 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-10-13. The current price is 579.00, 7.75% above the estimated average cost of 537.36. An estimated 98.5% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 1.1% is above it. The peak-density price is 546.00. The largest concentrated cost region is 530.25 to 552.25 and contains 52.8% of the estimated distribution. The nearest region below the current price is 564.75 to 566.75.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for ULTA
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is relatively low, indicating limited pressure from short positions. (Historical percentile: 23%)
Structure Analysis
ULTA Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 5.0 trading days, meaning short positions would unwind somewhat slower than average. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 0/100, DTC percentile 100%) while price maintains a mild upward bias (20D return 6.4%) and liquidity softening modestly (volume -15%). Positioning is historically elevated, although price and liquidity conditions do not yet confirm structural fragility. Short positioning is at extreme historical levels.
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Days-to-Cover is elevated versus its own history, but absolute short interest remains moderate. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 2× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-09-30 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.