Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NYSE • Sector: Industrials • Industry: Railroads
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Profile & Business Summary
Union Pacific Corporation, through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, operates in the railroad business in the United States. The company offers transportation services for grain and grain products, fertilizers, food and refrigerated products, and coal and renewables to grain processors, animal feeders, ethanol producers, and other agricultural users; petroleum, and liquid petroleum gases; and construction products, industrial chemicals, plastics, forest products, specialized products, metals and ores, soda ash, and sand, as well as finished automobiles, automotive parts, and merchandise in intermodal containers. As of December 31, 2021, its rail network included 32,452 route miles connecting Pacific Coast and Gulf Coast ports with the Midwest and Eastern United States gateways. The company was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.
Key Information
| Ticker | UNP |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NYSE |
| Official Site | https://www.up.com |
Market Trend Overview for UNP
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-08-28 (ET)
As of 2026-08-28, UNP is starting to move higher. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
UNP last closed at 307.41. The price is about 0.5 ATR above its recent average price (304.77), and the market is currently in an early upward move. Price at 307.41 is holding above minor support near 285.45. If price continues higher, it may face minor resistance around 314.15. View Support & Resistance from Options
The trend is still positive, but signs of slowing momentum suggest growing two-sided risk.
Trend score: 80 out of 100. Overall alignment is strong. The market is currently in an early-stage uptrend. Trend signals are well aligned across timeframes, suggesting a stable and consistent trend.
A key downside risk boundary is near 286.99. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-08-24, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
[2026-08-28] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.Bearish signal in open space between key levels. Pattern is less clear, so strength is reduced.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
The model sees a credible bullish edge, with 67.1% upside probability, strong signal alignment, and reward/risk that remains meaningfully favorable.
Up probability is 67.1%, with predictability at 65% and signal agreement at 86%. Reversal risk is 10%, while reward/risk stands at 0.38. That suggests the directional case is supported by broad confirmation and still retains usable quality.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 27 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-08-28. The current price is 307.41, 2.22% above the estimated average cost of 300.72. An estimated 78.1% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 21.3% is above it. The peak-density price is 301.90. The largest concentrated cost region is 291.35 to 296.25 and contains 25.2% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 306.45 to 309.15 cost region. The nearest region below the current price is 305.75 to 305.85. The nearest region above the current price is 312.75 to 312.95.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for UNP
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is well above normal levels, increasing the risk of forced covering and sudden price moves. (Historical percentile: 89%)
Structure Analysis
UNP Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 6.9 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 24/100, DTC percentile 21%) as price consolidates near recent highs (20D return 5.2%).
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Price action is compressing (range is tightening), which can make breaks more sensitive. Price is consolidating near highs with a weak upward bias; surface strength may mask a more fragile structure. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. High-level consolidation and compression suggest a fragile upside structure. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-07-31 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.