United States Oil Fund, LP (USO) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: AMEX • Sector: Financial Services • Industry: Asset Management
United States Oil Fund, LP (USO) Profile & Business Summary
USO invests primarily in futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, diesel-heating oil, gasoline, natural gas, and other petroleum-based fuels.
Key Information
| Ticker | USO |
|---|---|
| Exchange | AMEX |
| Official Site | http://www.unitedstatesoilfund.com |
Market Trend Overview for USO
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-06-03 (ET)
As of 2026-06-03, USO is starting to move higher. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
USO last closed at 140.86. The price is about 2.2 ATR above its recent average price (136.56), and the market is currently in an early upward move. Price at 140.86 is holding above minor support near 138.80. If price continues higher, it may face minor resistance around 143.98. View Support & Resistance from Options
The trend is still positive, but signs of slowing momentum suggest growing two-sided risk.
Trend score: 80 out of 100. Overall alignment is strong. The market is currently in an early-stage uptrend. Trend signals are well aligned across timeframes, suggesting a stable and consistent trend.
Price is stretched well above its recent average (about 2.2 ATR). Upside extension is elevated, and chasing strength here carries a higher pullback risk.
A key downside risk boundary is near 122.15. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-06-03, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
[2026-06-02] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent price action shows orderly upward progression with no major deterioration in bar-level efficiency. Structural conditions remain broadly constructive.
Closing activity showed limited conviction and did not suggest strong overnight positioning.
The model sees a credible bullish edge, with 66.4% upside probability, strong signal alignment, and reward/risk that remains meaningfully favorable.
Up probability is 66.4%, with predictability at 66% and signal agreement at 88%. Reversal risk is 19%, while reward/risk stands at 0.40. That suggests the directional case is supported by broad confirmation and still retains usable quality. At the same time, recent price behavior has shown failed reversal memory.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This reading is based on the last 20 trading days of 15-minute price, volume, and VWAP data. Price is modestly above the recent estimated cost basis of 138.34, so the recent structure is still on the firmer side. Price is in the upper half of the main cost band (132.71 to 141.34), which is usually a healthier short-term location because price is holding the stronger side of recent trading activity. The lower down support area sits around 139.14 to 139.58. It looks more like a first buffer than a major floor. The higher up selling area sits around 146.90 to 147.19. Recent positioning looks fairly balanced, with 64% in profit and 36% under water. The main cost band is fairly wide relative to recent ATR, so this structure may behave less cleanly than a tighter setup. From a trading point of view, the structure is still best read by comparing price with the main cost band first, then watching whether the lower support zone or higher supply zone becomes the next directional checkpoint.