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Vale S.A. (VALE) Corporate Logo

Vale S.A. (VALE) Stock Price & Analysis

Market: NYSE • Sector: Basic Materials • Industry: Industrial Materials

Vale S.A. (VALE) Profile & Business Summary

Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells iron ore, iron ore pellets, nickel, and copper in Brazil and internationally. The company operates through Iron Solutions and Energy Transition Materials segments. The Iron Solutions segment produces and extracts iron ore and pellets, and other ferrous products; and provides related logistic services. The Energy Transition Materials segment produces and extracts nickel; and its by-products, such as gold, silver, cobalt, precious metals, and others, as well as copper used in the construction sector to produce pipes and electrical wires. The company was formerly known as Companhia Vale do Rio Doce and changed its name to Vale S.A. in May 2009. Vale S.A. was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.

Key Information

Ticker VALE
Exchange NYSE
Official Site https://www.vale.com
CIK Number 0000917851
View SEC Filings

Market Trend Overview for VALE

One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.

Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)

Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-03-25 (ET)

As of 2026-03-25, VALE is moving sideways without a clear direction. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.

VALE last closed at 15.14. The price is about 0.4 ATR below its recent average price (15.26), and the market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. Price at 15.14 is moving between minor support near 14.63 and minor resistance near 15.73. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options

The market is moving sideways, with no clear direction. Both upside and downside risks remain in play.

Trend Alignment Summary

Trend score: 35 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.

Key Risk Level

There is no clear risk level acting as a key boundary right now.

Recent Trend Signal

On 2026-03-05, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.

Unusual Price Movement

[2026-03-17] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.

Recent Price Behavior

Recent price action shows orderly upward progression with no major deterioration in bar-level efficiency. Structural conditions remain broadly constructive.

Overnight Positioning

There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.

Next-day directional probability forecast Last updated: 2026-03-25 (ET)
VALE is not currently in a trend-dominant environment, so the trend prediction model is not activated for this run.

NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history

Recent Cost Distribution Last updated: 2026-03-25 (ET)

This reading is based on the last 20 trading days of 15-minute price, volume, and VWAP data. Price is only slightly above the recent estimated cost basis of 15.09. Price is above the main cost band (14.71 to 15.03), which keeps the recent structure constructive, although extension risk starts to matter more from here. The lower down support area sits around 14.60 to 14.64. It looks more like a first buffer than a major floor. The higher up selling area sits around 15.33 to 15.37, so rebounds may begin to slow as price pushes into that zone. Recent positioning looks fairly balanced, with 61% in profit and 39% under water. Recent trading is fairly concentrated, so the nearby heavy zones may matter more than usual. From a trading point of view, the structure is still best read by comparing price with the main cost band first, then watching whether the lower support zone or higher supply zone becomes the next directional checkpoint.

Short Interest & Covering Risk for VALE

This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.

Squeeze Score 0.43

Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.

Key Market Risk Indicators
Short Crowding (Short Interest / Float) 1.36%
Short Positions Trend Not Increasing
Liquidity Trend (Average Daily Volume) -26.00%
20-Day Return -13.63%
Price vs 20-Day High Below Recent Highs

Short Exposure Percentile

Short interest is relatively low, indicating limited pressure from short positions. (Historical percentile: 10%)

Structure Analysis

VALE Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 1.9 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. Price is already trending lower (20D return -13.6%). The current configuration reflects active downside pressure rather than latent structural fragility.

Risk Summary

No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.

Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?

Average trading volume is weakening, indicating contracting liquidity. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.


Note: Short interest data is reported every two weeks by FINRA. The most recent snapshot is 2026-02-27 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.

Analytical Modules