Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NYSE • Sector: Energy • Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Profile & Business Summary
Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. It produces conventional, premium, and reformulated gasolines; gasoline meeting the specifications of the California Air Resources Board (CARB); diesel fuels, and low-sulfur and ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuels; CARB diesel; other distillates; jet fuels; blendstocks; and asphalts, petrochemicals, lubricants, and other refined petroleum products, as well as sells lube oils and natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned 15 petroleum refineries with a combined throughput capacity of approximately 3.2 million barrels per day; and 12 ethanol plants with a combined ethanol production capacity of approximately 1.6 billion gallons per year. It sells its refined products through wholesale rack and bulk markets; and through approximately 7,000 outlets under the Valero, Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Texaco brands. The company also produces and sells ethanol, dry distiller grains, syrup, and inedible corn oil primarily to animal feed customers. In addition, it owns and operates crude oil and refined petroleum products pipelines, terminals, tanks, marine docks, truck rack bays, and other logistics assets; and owns and operates a plant that processes animal fats, used cooking oils, and inedible distillers corn oils into renewable diesel. The company was formerly known as Valero Refining and Marketing Company and changed its name to Valero Energy Corporation in August 1997. Valero Energy Corporation was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.
Key Information
| Ticker | VLO |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NYSE |
| Official Site | https://www.valero.com |
Market Trend Overview for VLO
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-10-01 (ET)
As of 2026-10-01, VLO is moving sideways without a clear direction. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
VLO last closed at 408.46. The price is about 1.4 ATR above its recent average price (396.10), and the market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. Price at 408.46 is moving between minor support near 375.10 and minor resistance near 431.66. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
The market is moving sideways, with no clear direction. Both upside and downside risks remain in play.
Trend score: 35 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
A key downside risk boundary is near 332.10. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.
On 2026-09-30, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.
[2026-09-29] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
Buying into the close appeared steady and controlled, consistent with deliberate overnight positioning.
The model sees a credible bullish edge, with 62.7% upside probability, strong signal alignment, and reward/risk that remains meaningfully favorable.
Up probability is 62.7%, with predictability at 56% and signal agreement at 100%. Reversal risk is 18%, while reward/risk stands at 0.30. That suggests the directional case is supported by broad confirmation and still retains usable quality.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 50 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-10-01. The current price is 408.46, 12.76% above the estimated average cost of 362.22. An estimated 95.6% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 4.3% is above it. The peak-density price is 348.00. The largest concentrated cost region is 376.25 to 397.75 and contains 34.8% of the estimated distribution. The nearest region below the current price is 402.75 to 405.25. The nearest region above the current price is 412.25 to 413.25.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for VLO
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is well above normal levels, increasing the risk of forced covering and sudden price moves. (Historical percentile: 75%)
Structure Analysis
VLO Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 3.1 trading days, meaning short positions could unwind at a normal pace. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. No meaningful structural fragility is currently detected (Fragility Score 24/100, DTC percentile 53%) while price maintains a mild upward bias (20D return 11.6%).
Risk Summary
No clear bull trap characteristics detected. Recent price behavior remains broadly consistent with current positioning.This reading helps confirm that current price action remains structurally healthy and does not indicate elevated trap risk.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Price action is compressing (range is tightening), which can make breaks more sensitive. Price is consolidating near highs with a weak upward bias; surface strength may mask a more fragile structure. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. High-level consolidation and compression suggest a fragile upside structure. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 1× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-09-15 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.