Updated on 2025-12-23. This dashboard tracks AI bubble risk, tech stock sell-offs, credit stress, and macro warning signs similar to the dot-com bubble. It uses High Yield Corporate Bond vs. Treasury spreads as an early-warning indicator for AI-driven overvaluation, systemic risk, and market fragility.
The global surge in AI-related stocks has raised concerns among analysts, major institutions, and even contrarian investors like Michael Burry. The question is no longer “Is there an AI bubble?” but “When does it burst — and what are the early indicators?”
Searches like “why are markets down today” and “why did stocks drop today” often spike on days when AI stocks decline sharply.
The most common causes include:
Searches like “dot-com bubble”, “dotcom crash”, and “when was the dot com bubble” indicate strong user desire to compare today's AI hype to the early 2000s. The similarities are striking:
The largest difference today: Big Tech's cash flow is real, but valuations still may be stretched.
The spread between ICE BofA High Yield Tech Bond Yields and the 10-Year Treasury is one of the most reliable ways to monitor hidden stress in the AI/tech ecosystem. Widening spreads indicate:
As of 2025-12-23:
Bubble risk level: LOW RISK
The AI bubble refers to excessive valuation growth driven by AI hype, capex spending, and investor speculation.
Widening credit spreads and sharp tech stock sell-offs may indicate early signs of bubble stress.
It reflects investor confidence in tech companies. Wider spreads = higher risk premiums.
Data updates daily using FRED/ICE BofA yield feeds.
