The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NYSE • Sector: Financial Services • Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Profile & Business Summary
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles (RV). This segment's products include personal auto insurance; and special lines products, including insurance for motorcycles, ATVs, RVs, watercrafts, snowmobiles, and related products. The Commercial Lines segment provides auto-related primary liability and physical damage insurance, and business-related general liability and property insurance for autos, vans, pick-up trucks, and dump trucks used by small businesses; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks primarily used by regional general freight and expeditor-type businesses, and long-haul operators; dump trucks, log trucks, and garbage trucks used by dirt, sand and gravel, logging, and coal-type businesses; and tow trucks and wreckers used in towing services and gas/service station businesses; as well as non-fleet and airport taxis, and black-car services. The Property segment writes residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters, as well as offers personal umbrella insurance, and primary and excess flood insurance. The company also offers policy issuance and claims adjusting services; and acts as an agent to homeowner general liability, workers' compensation insurance, and other products. In addition, it provides reinsurance services. The company sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as directly on Internet through mobile devices, and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.
Key Information
| Ticker | PGR |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NYSE |
| Official Site | https://www.progressive.com |
Market Trend Overview for PGR
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-07-13 (ET)
As of 2026-07-13, PGR is moving sideways without a clear direction. Over the longer term, the trend remains bearish.
PGR last closed at 234.48. The price is about 1.9 ATR above its recent average price (225.18), and the market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. Price at 234.48 is moving between minor support near 226.25 and minor resistance near 239.38. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
The market is moving sideways, with no clear direction. Both upside and downside risks remain in play.
Trend score: 35 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. The longer-term trend is still negative, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
A key downside risk boundary is near 203.58. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-05-18, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
Closing activity showed limited conviction and did not suggest strong overnight positioning.
The model sees a bullish edge, with 55.7% upside probability and a still-actionable balance between confirmation and reversal risk.
Up probability is 55.7%, with predictability at 56% and signal agreement at 88%. Reversal risk is 16%. That suggests the directional case is supported by broad confirmation and still retains usable quality. At the same time, recent price behavior has shown failed reversal memory.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This reading is based on the last 20 trading days of 15-minute price, volume, and VWAP data. Price is trading 4.9% above the recent estimated cost basis of 223.54, which keeps the recent cost structure in a clearly stronger position. Price is in the upper half of the main cost band (228.87 to 237.54), which is usually a healthier short-term location because price is holding the stronger side of recent trading activity. The lower down support area sits around 224.79 to 225.81. It looks more like a first buffer than a major floor. The next higher selling area sits around 235.16 to 236.35, so rebounds may begin to slow as price pushes into that zone. About 88% of recent positioning is in profit, which is a strong backdrop, but it also means momentum needs to stay healthy to avoid profit-taking pressure. The main cost band is fairly wide relative to recent ATR, so this structure may behave less cleanly than a tighter setup. From a trading point of view, the structure is still best read by comparing price with the main cost band first, then watching whether the lower support zone or higher supply zone becomes the next directional checkpoint.