UPST Stock Forecast & Next-Day Prediction
This page provides a complete UPST stock analysis supported by real-time market data. It includes momentum trends, volatility regimes, options positioning, ETF fund flows, macro risk indicators, and supply–demand pressure from volume distribution. It also features a UPST stock forecast with a next-day probability estimate generated by WhaleQuant’s multi-factor AI prediction model.
UPST Short-Term Forecast Details
Forecast Published (New York Time / ET): 2025-12-24
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1. 📊 Technical Momentum
- Momentum Score: 91.8
- Momentum is extremely strong, with price action showing continuous upward structure led by dominant bulls.
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2. 🕯️ Candle Structure
- Candle Score: -0.12
- The candle structure leans bearish, with mild selling pressure or weak support, suggesting some downside risk in the short term.
- Overnight vs Intraday Structure: -0.11
- Bearish bias: intraday weakness dominates, indicating potential short-term downside risk.
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3. 📈 Volatility (ATR)
- ATR Score: 35.0
- Volatility Regime: HighVol
- Volatility is elevated. Price action may become erratic with shakeouts or failed moves. Trend signals lose reliability.
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4. 📦 Volume Profile
- High-Volume Zone: 51.57 ~ 52.80 (mid 52.19)
- Volume Pressure: -0.026
- Buying and selling pressure are balanced, with no clear support or resistance dominance.
- Price is below the major volume zone, suggesting overhead supply. A breakout above the zone is needed for trend continuation.
- VP Reliability: 0.41
- The Volume Profile has moderate reliability. Some recent trading activity aligns with historical volume zones, but the structure is not the dominant driver of price action.
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5. 📉 Volume Strength (Volume Score)
- Volume Score: -0.20
- Volume is slightly weak, with fading participation and limited support behind price moves.
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6. 📜 Historical Market Statistics
- Historical Probability of a 5-Day Rise (based on past similar setups): 49.84%
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7. 💹 Macro Environment
- 13-week T-Bill: 3.522 → 3.555
- DXY: 98.533 → 97.980
- VIX: 16.280 → 13.470
- Short-term yields moved higher, putting mild pressure on equity valuations; The U.S. dollar weakened, which typically benefits tech and growth sectors; VIX declined, suggesting an improvement in market risk sentiment.
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate: 3.680 → 3.660
- The secured overnight financing rate has declined noticeably, easing short-term funding conditions and supporting risk assets.
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8. 🧠 Market Sentiment
- Sentiment Index: 60.0
- ETF Risk Appetite: -0.252
- Sentiment leans toward greed; investors are more aggressive, but profit-taking pressure may rise. ETF flows tilt defensive, indicating cautious institutional sentiment.
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9. 📉 Options Structure
- IV Skew: -1.271
- Skew is deeply negative, signaling heavy demand for downside protection, typically seen during fear-driven markets or ahead of risk events.
- GEX Index: 1.491
- GEX is strongly positive, indicating meaningful volatility compression.
- DPI: 0.372
- Dealers are slightly net-long, contributing to mild volatility dampening.
- Options structure indicates mixed signals across volatility, dealer positioning, and skew — short-term direction requires broader confirmation.
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10. 🧮 Final Prediction
- Next-Day Upside Probability: 52.32%
- UPST is only mildly tilted to the upside, with a 52.32% upside probability. Statistically this is close to neutral, with just a slight bullish skew.
📌 Model View: Signals do not justify treating this as a strong or decisive long setup. The environment is more consistent with a wait-and-see or light-probe posture.
📌 Positioning Tone: Any long exposure here is better framed as exploratory or tactical rather than conviction-level positioning.
Data update note: Some datasets (ETF flows, aggregated sentiment indicators) update with a one-day delay. Other components — options chain data, intraday volatility, real-time liquidity and volume signals — are refreshed throughout the trading day. The model blends these signals to produce a stable and statistically calibrated short-term probability forecast.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the UPST stock forecast?
The UPST stock forecast evaluates short-term probability of price direction based on momentum, volatility, sentiment, macro trends, options positioning, and ETF flows.
How accurate is the next-day prediction?
While no model can guarantee outcomes, WhaleQuant’s AI engine is calibrated using historical data patterns and real-time microstructure signals to generate statistically meaningful forecasts.
How often is the UPST forecast updated?
Forecasts are updated daily using real-time volatility and liquidity indicators alongside end-of-day datasets to ensure consistency and stability.