Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Financial Services • Industry: Financial - Credit Services
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Profile & Business Summary
Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. Its platform aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects it to its network of the company's AI-enabled bank partners. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.
Key Information
| Ticker | UPST |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NASDAQ |
| Official Site | https://www.upstart.com |
Market Trend Overview for UPST
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-10-13 (ET)
As of 2026-10-13, UPST is moving sideways without a clear direction. Over the longer term, the trend remains bullish.
UPST last closed at 23.83. The price is about 0.3 ATR below its recent average price (24.45), and the market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. Price at 23.83 is moving between minor support near 22.55 and minor resistance near 24.50. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
The market is moving sideways, with no clear direction. Both upside and downside risks remain in play.
Trend score: 35 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways market without a clear direction. The longer-term trend is still positive, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
There is no clear key risk boundary right now.
On 2026-09-09, trend conditions deteriorated, suggesting that moves in the prior direction became less dependable.
Recent bars show mixed price behavior without a clear shift in structural quality or efficiency.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.
The model does not deploy this setup because predictability is still too low and internal signals are not aligned strongly enough. Predictability is 23%, agreement is 19%, and reversal risk is 17%.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This estimate uses 1-minute price, volume, and VWAP data from the last 58 trading days, with turnover-based decay. The sample period is 2026-07-23 to 2026-10-13. The current price is 23.83, 7.22% below the estimated average cost of 25.69. An estimated 25.1% of recent positioning is below the current price, while 73.2% is above it. The peak-density price is 23.00. The largest concentrated cost region is 22.78 to 25.12 and contains 55.4% of the estimated distribution. The current price is within the 22.78 to 25.12 cost region. The nearest region above the current price is 25.23 to 26.17.
Short Interest & Covering Risk for UPST
This analysis looks at overall short interest positioning, focusing on the broader setup rather than short-term noise.
Shows how likely a short squeeze may be under current market conditions.
Short Exposure Percentile
Short interest is within its typical range, with no clear imbalance between buyers and sellers. (Historical percentile: 59%)
Structure Analysis
UPST Short positioning looks normal. Current days to cover is 6.2 trading days, meaning short positions would unwind somewhat slower than average. Short covering is likely to have a normal impact on price moves. Early signs of positioning pressure are emerging (Fragility Score 55/100, DTC percentile 89%) with short positioning continuing to expand.
Risk Summary
Some early warning signs are emerging. Price strength remains intact, but underlying support may be starting to weaken.This indicator is intended as a risk filter, not a directional signal. A High or Extreme reading does not predict an immediate move, but suggests that if prices weaken, downside reactions may be more pronounced.
Why Price Reactions May Be Stronger?
Short positioning is elevated both relative to its own history and in absolute short-interest terms. In the latest reporting period, short interest continues to increase. Price action is compressing (range is tightening), which can make breaks more sensitive. Phase: Building. Adaptive thresholds applied to liquidity weakness, near-high detection, and compression sensitivity. Crowded positioning is being reinforced by continued short build-up. As a result, similar news or market events could lead to price moves about 2× larger than usual.
Note:
Short interest data is reported every two weeks by
FINRA.
The most recent snapshot is
2026-09-30 (ET).
Because this data updates slowly, it is not intended to predict short-term price moves. Instead, it helps describe longer-term market structure and where pressure may be building if prices begin to move.