Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Stock Price & Analysis
Market: NASDAQ • Sector: Financial Services • Industry: Financial - Credit Services
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Profile & Business Summary
Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. Its platform aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects it to its network of the company's AI-enabled bank partners. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.
Key Information
| Ticker | UPST |
|---|---|
| Exchange | NASDAQ |
| Official Site | https://www.upstart.com |
Market Trend Overview for UPST
One model, two time views: what the market looks like right now, and where the larger trend is heading over time.
SRE (WhaleQuant Structural Regime Engine) SRE evaluates how price structure evolves across daily and weekly timeframes to define the prevailing market regime. Beyond identifying trends, consolidations, and exhaustion phases, it distinguishes between raw structural strength and deployable participation quality. The model dynamically adjusts for structural context and extension risk, assessing whether conditions are supportive, stretched, fragile, or structurally impaired. Its purpose is not to forecast precise price levels, but to determine whether risk deployment is aligned with underlying market structure.
Longer-Term Market Trend (Mid to Long Term)
Shows the bigger market trend, how strong it is, and where risks may start to build over the next few weeks or months. — Updated as of 2026-07-14 (ET)
As of 2026-07-14, UPST is moving sideways with low volatility. Over the longer term, the trend remains bearish.
UPST last closed at 31.72. The price is about 0.6 ATR below its recent average price (32.73), and the market is currently in a sideways market with low volatility. Price at 31.72 is moving between light support near 29.80 and light resistance near 32.40. Direction remains unclear. View Support & Resistance from Options
Price is moving in a tight range. This often leads to a stronger move once the range breaks, increasing one-sided risk.
Trend score: 40 out of 100. Overall alignment is unclear. The market is currently in a sideways phase with tightening price movement. The longer-term trend is still negative, but short-term signals are not yet confirming it.
A key downside risk boundary is near 27.25. If price falls below this area, the current structure would likely weaken further.
A systematic trend-activation signal was most recently triggered on 2026-07-01, reflecting a technical shift toward positive directional alignment.
[2026-07-13] Price moved quickly and looked strong, but participation was limited.
Recent price movement appears increasingly driven by low-effort advances. Such hollow progression often reflects reduced participation and lower reliability of continuation.
There was no clear sign of meaningful positions being carried into the overnight session.
The model stays neutral because the setup is not clear enough to justify a directional deployment.
The model does not deploy this setup because price is still close to a gamma transition zone. Predictability is 47%, agreement is 72%, and reversal risk is 22%.
NOTE: This next-day up/down probability forecast module is still being tested for accuracy. Please do not rely on it for investment decisions. The model does not account for black swan events or company-specific fundamental news, and its estimates are based solely on technical conditions, capital flow, and market sentiment. View forecast history
This reading is based on the last 20 trading days of 15-minute price, volume, and VWAP data. Price is trading 4.4% below the recent estimated cost basis of 33.20, so the recent structure is still leaning under pressure. Price is below the main cost band (32.33 to 33.92), and roughly 82% of recent positioning remains under water. That means rebounds can still run into supply from trapped holders. The broader structure still looks stretched on the weak side, so recovery attempts may need more proof before improving the tone. The higher up selling area sits around 34.72 to 34.83. The main cost band is fairly wide relative to recent ATR, so this structure may behave less cleanly than a tighter setup. From a trading point of view, this setup remains tougher until price can reclaim the lower edge of the main cost band near 32.33.